The US Department of Justice has released a large cache of documents relating to the Epstein Files, and some of those contain the name of Prime Minister Modi. No one knows the facts behind this so-called revelation, but one thing is crystal clear from the timing of this revelation. The trade negotiations between India and the US have been going on for a long and India has been stubborn and rejecting any possible entry of the US in the Indian agriculture and dairy sector, while the US wants India to open these sectors for American imports. The Trump Administration is under huge pressure from the dairy sector, and corn producers lobby after the Chinese strike on American exports of corn to China. The US is desperately searching for new markets for its agricultural products and dairy sector, and India is the largest market for these products.
So to manage India, the US is arm-twisting Indian Prime Minister when he is at receiving end of the backlash post the UGC regulation from all sides of society. The US knows that the opposition will do everything to cash out this Epstein Files Opportunity so that it can paint Narendra Modi as a weak and compromising Prime Minister. A large section of the Prime Minister's supporters and followers is already fuming due to the UGC regulation that the Supreme Court of India has put a stay on. These two factors will increase pressure on PM Modi and the government. So the US negotiation team thinks that this double pressure will pave the way for the US agriculture and dairy products in India.
Not just a trade deal, India has been doing many things that the Trump dispensation is not taking sportingly. India has been increasing the share of gold in its reserve and buying less US treasury bonds. At the same time, RBI is increasing the number of ‘Special Rupee Vostro Accounts’ in different banks from as many countries as possible to enable Rupee-denominated international trade. While at the same time, India is working hard on turning the Indian economy into a manufacturing-led economy. If India succeeds in turning its economy into a manufacturing-led economy along with its dominance in services, India will start having a surplus with its trading partners. This is the situation when other countries will start trading in the Indian Rupee instead of the US dollar. If it happens, it will reinforce the de-dollarisation movement, something which started in 2022 when the US seized the Russian foreign exchange reserve denominated in US dollar treasury bonds when Russia attacked Ukraine.
Indian Prime Minister may be under pressure, but it is evident from the way India is carrying out trade negotiations that India will not buzz off. Perhaps the US trade negotiation team has mis-calculated. India will hold on to its position in agriculture and dairy. India has to, as it has no option but to protect its farmers’ and dairy sector interests.
Not just a trade deal, India has been doing many things that the Trump dispensation is not taking sportingly. India has been increasing the share of gold in its reserve and buying less US treasury bonds. At the same time, RBI is increasing the number of ‘Special Rupee Vostro Accounts’ in different banks from as many countries as possible to enable Rupee-denominated international trade. While at the same time, India is working hard on turning the Indian economy into a manufacturing-led economy. If India succeeds in turning its economy into a manufacturing-led economy along with its dominance in services, India will start having a surplus with its trading partners. This is the situation when other countries will start trading in the Indian Rupee instead of the US dollar. If it happens, it will reinforce the de-dollarisation movement, something which started in 2022 when the US seized the Russian foreign exchange reserve denominated in US dollar treasury bonds when Russia attacked Ukraine.
Indian Prime Minister may be under pressure, but it is evident from the way India is carrying out trade negotiations that India will not buzz off. Perhaps the US trade negotiation team has mis-calculated. India will hold on to its position in agriculture and dairy. India has to, as it has no option but to protect its farmers’ and dairy sector interests.
Rajeev Upadhyay
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