A Ceasefire will not Fix the Fuel Bill

The way the Iran-US war unfolded and caused damage to oil assets in the Middle East, it is clear that even if Iran and the United States announce and implement a permanent ceasefire immediately, the global oil market will not recover for months. For natural gas, the disruption is measured in years, not months. This is not pessimism. This is what the data silently speaks.

The conflict has done something that no geopolitical shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo has managed to do. It has simultaneously disrupted production, transit, and insurance across the same chokepoint. Brent crude, which was trading near $70 per barrel before hostilities began on February 28, 2026, crossed $113 per barrel, a 60% spike in under four weeks. This is not a paper price. Physical oil supply from a region accounting for 20% of global daily output has been interrupted simultaneously at the source, in transit, and at the point of export.

At present, the global energy market is facing not one crisis but two. Most importantly, these two operate on entirely different timescales. On crude oil, the core structural problem is the Strait of Hormuz. This is the world's most critical energy chokepoint, and unlike the Russia-Ukraine disruption of 2022, where Russian oil was rerouted to Asia through alternative logistics, the Strait has no viable workaround at scale.

Modi Government Slashes Excise Duties on Petrol and Diesel

Amidst rising prices in the international market, the UPA's Manmohan government issued oil bonds worth approximately ₹1.5 lakh crore to provide affordable fuel to consumers. This measure ensured that, during a period of high inflation, the common citizen would not have to directly bear the burden of increased oil prices. This decision also served a secondary objective: it ensured that the government which had already become unpopular due to various scandals would not have to face further political difficulties. In essence, the Manmohan government chose to shift the burden onto the future in order to ease the present.

To repay the very debt incurred through these oil bonds issued by the UPA government to oil companies and which had since ballooned to approximately ₹3.5 lakh crore the Modi government continued to sell fuel to the same consumers at elevated prices for nearly seven to eight consecutive years, even when international oil prices had declined. The Modi government faced significant criticism for this approach. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself faced personal allegations of favoring oil companies.

Be that as it may.

Possible Fuel Crisis in India

Amidst the chaos of the Iran-Israel conflict and disruptions to supply chains due to Hormuz blockade, every nation is working around the clock to safeguard its interests and mitigate potential losses. Almost every country in the world is bound to bear the brunt of this war, whether in terms of diplomatic relations, economic relations, or both.

At present, the conflict appears one-sided, though Iran is giving a tough fight due to its strong foundation in ideology, unlike Venezuela. However, this war is still tilting decisively in favour of the combined forces of Israel and the United States. However, once this war concludes, the world will never be the same again. If the conflict remains conventional—and the US refrains from launching a nuclear strike against Iran—it is expected to be a protracted affair. Should the war drag on, President Trump could find himself politically hamstrung following the US midterm elections. This shift alone would fundamentally alter geopolitical dynamics. Within the realm of US domestic politics, very few are willing to align themselves with Donald Trump’s chauvinistic posturing regarding domestic and foreign policy matters. Consequently, once his political standing weakens or he is ousted from power, events are likely to shift rapidly once more, potentially leading to a global "reset."

Upset Over Narendra Modi's Israel Visit

India's secular intellectuals and media houses are outraged by the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel. More than the Prime Minister's visit, they are upset by the fact that in his speech, the Prime Minister referred to Hamas as terrorist organization and the October 7th Hamas attack as a terrorist attack. Their displeasure is further compounded by the fact that the Prime Minister has agreed to several cooperation agreements to give a new dimension to India-Israel relations.

Well!

These people argue that India has changed its policy direction on the Palestine issue. India has always supported Palestine on the Palestine issue, but now India has retreated from that policy. These intellectuals continue to call this change in direction wrong.

Well, if this is the argument, then one question must be asked: what has India gained as a result of this one-sided support to Palestine?

Let's assume that Palestine is very poor and facing hardship. It has no technology or any special scientific achievements that could benefit India. No problem. Then, Palestine can at least support India on international forums and refrain from making negative comments on India's internal issues. India can certainly expect this much, and it's justified. But what is the reality?

Trump's Tariff, the US Supreme Court and Its Impact on India

The US Supreme Court held that Trump could not impose general tariffs during peacetime under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). IEEPA was the legal basis for the 18% reciprocal tariff on India and tariffs on other countries. This ruling by the US Supreme Court has effectively struck down the legal basis for the higher rate. India was paying only the standard MFN-style tariffs of 3.5% before Trump’s tariffs. This was a setback for President Trump, but the Trump Administration acted quickly to invoke Section 122 of the US trade law. This little-used provision allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days, after which Congress must authorise an extension. Under the new rules, a flat 15% tariff is now applied to imports from all countries, including India, from February 24, 2026.

What has Changed Post the Court’s Ruling

The recent announcement by Donald Trump of a 15% “global” tariff on all countries, which came immediately after the US Supreme Court invalidated his previous tariffs imposed on an emergency basis, has upset the trade math calculations for India. What this means for India is that the earlier agreed-upon 18% reciprocal tariff, which was part of the Trump-Modi trade agreement, is now legally dubious, and in its place, a temporary 15% tariff will be imposed on Indian exports to the United States. The impact of this new development is that India will now be faced with a tariff rate that is lower than the 18% rate that was originally agreed to, but higher than the pre-Trump MFN rate of 3.5%.

Indian IT Stocks have Tough Time Ahead

The stocks of Indian IT companies are bleeding following the launch of Anthropic, a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) model. The prices of stocks of Indian IT companies have fallen by more than 15% in the last one month. This AI model is capable of replacing software coders and programmers. Particularly in the case of the Indian IT sector, Software as a Service (SaaS) is the main business and revenue source. Such AI models are expected to make the Software as a Service (SaaS) business almost dead! For Indian IT companies, this is news which they never imagined but are now facing. This is a kind of Kodak Moment for the Indian IT sector! Nokia also experienced this and could never recover despite its complete dominance!

The said AI model and such other models are expected to completely disrupt and shake the global IT sector, and the ramifications may be even broader than assumed! However, there is also a possibility that the buzz around AI may prove to be hype, like initial opposition to calculators and computers!

As of now, for a person, AI and its impact on businesses and humanity may be a mystery. Numerous questions are floating around with no final answers. However, for the Indian IT sector, the AI models present a deflection point. People across India are wondering to find the answers to these questions: Why are the stocks of Indian IT companies bleeding on the stock exchanges? Is it just because of disruptive innovation? Or something else?

Budget 2025-2026: Modi Government's Big Bet on Youth

India's Union Budget 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, 2026, emphasized "youth-driven growth" to capitalize on the demographic dividend through education, skill development, and digital tools. The government has allocated approximately ₹1.4 lakh crore for the education sector in the 2026-27 budget. Key budget announcements include safe housing for female students, youth skill centers, and AI platforms like BharatVistaar, all aligned with the goals of a developed India.

Demographic Dividend as an Engine

Education, skills, youth, and students are crucial pillars of India's vision of a developed India. Translating our demographic dividend into a high-productivity workforce is not just an option but a necessity for becoming a developed nation by 2047. These not only promote inclusive growth, innovation, and economic resilience, but also align with India's ambitions of achieving a $30 trillion GDP and global leadership in services and manufacturing. The Union Budget 2026-27's education, skills, youth, and student schemes are built on this foundation. 

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Narendra Modi in the Epstein File: A Pressure Tactics

The US Department of Justice has released a large cache of documents relating to the Epstein Files, and some of those contain the name of Prime Minister Modi. No one knows the facts behind this so-called revelation, but one thing is crystal clear from the timing of this revelation. The trade negotiations between India and the US have been going on for a long and India has been stubborn and rejecting any possible entry of the US in the Indian agriculture and dairy sector, while the US wants India to open these sectors for American imports. The Trump Administration is under huge pressure from the dairy sector, and corn producers lobby after the Chinese strike on American exports of corn to China. The US is desperately searching for new markets for its agricultural products and dairy sector, and India is the largest market for these products.

Investment in Indian Companies is an Investment in the Indian Eonomy

Mark Mobious of Mobious Capital thinks that Sensex will soon touch the high of 1,00,000 points. Not only this, but he thinks that investment in Adani or any such companies is an investment in India!

Is it really so and that simple?

Truly speaking, yes. This is 100% correct. These companies are one of the three stakeholders of the Indian economy. Two other stakeholders are consumers/citizens and regulators/ government. It is the regulator's duty and responsibility to ensure that the interests of the two other stakeholders are taken care of while ensuring capacity and capabilities building in the economy. However, whenever there is any effort by the government to provide support to businesses, there are controversies. It's not a trend of the day but a historical fact! There is a political narrative out there that claims that the investment in companies, and particularly Adani, is corruption and perhaps a crime!

SJ-100 MoU to Revolutionise Indian Regional Aviation Sector

India's HAL and Russia's UAC have signed an MoU in Moscow to produce the SJ-100 commuter aircraft in India, under which India will have the rights to manufacture civil commuter aircraft SJ-100 for domestic usage. SJ-100 is a small commuter aircraft.

This will mark the beginning of a new era in India's civil aircraft manufacturing sector. This will lead to the development of indigenous aircraft technology in India in the long term. India has a history of improvising technology in such a way that it becomes cheaper while maintaining the quality. So, one can expect that India will soon produce cheap small aircraft.

Not Adani Group but India is Target

In modern times, assassinations are not aimed at killing the human body. Rather, the assassin focuses on killing the spirit and image of the person. In this process, they first create an alternative perception and narrative about the targeted entities/individuals. Once it is done, they try to erase the person.

The Deep State first employed the short trader Hindenburg, but it couldn't hurt much. Now, the Deep State has hired a better assassin, the Washington Post, to make a killing against an Indian MNC that strategically put forth the Indian interests in a dynamic geopolitical stage of drama.

They have been successful in creating an alternative perception about the Adani Group over the years. You ask any naive person on the road, and that person, with no hesitation, will charge the Adani Group with the allegations of corruption. You ask a single question, 'How?' and that person will fumble and possibly skip the question or run away!

Deepawali Season Sale and Indian Economy

Following the implementation of GST 2.0, consumption has revived in the Indian economy. Deepawali sales increased by 25% this year to ₹5.4 trillion in goods, from ₹4.25 trillion, excluding an additional ₹65,000 crore from services.

All this happened when there was a negative impact on the Indian economy due to Trump's tariffs on Indian exports. This also defies the fears of so-called economists that the three festivals, namely Durga Puja, Deepawali, and Chhath, falling in the same month will hurt this year's Deepawali sales. Bhai Duj and Chhath are yet to be celebrated!

India must Support Zoho

I have been noticing attacks on Zoho and its founder, Sridhar Vembu, none but by Indian citizens! Why are Indians opposing a homegrown tech company? Earlier, they did the same with Patanjali and Baba Ramdev!

Not for any particular reason, but because both companies got support from the Government of India! The GoI is endorsing them, and they are gaining traction. So, the people in opposition are duty-bound to oppose anything supported by the GoI!

For this group of people, it doesn't matter whether their behaviour hurts the national interests or not. What matters most to them is their high egos and fake feelings of being special!

Are Fees on H-1B Visas a Boon for India?

Sometimes, your biggest adversary (bane), who resorts to bullying, turns into your biggest friend (boon). The adversary in disguise who is out to help you achieve your goals.

The US has imposed a $100,000 annual fee for H-1B visas for foreign workers and a 3.5% tax on foreign remittances. This is a targeted decision. 71% of H-1B visas are held by Indian citizens, and a major portion of these visa holders send money back to India.

This decision by the US government will directly and adversely affect Indians aspiring to go to the US for a career. The brightest talents (students and professionals) have been migrating to the dreamland of the America to pursue their dreams which couldn’t find an ecosystem and environment in India. Not only this, but also the Indian government has been investing billions of dollars every year in these talents to educate and train them. This has resulted in increased costs for India. Apart from this, millions of dollars are flowing to the US for education in US universities and higher education opportunities.

GST 2.0 and the Indian Economy

GST 2.0 is a major revamp of India’s indirect taxation system with the aim of simplifying the GST regime, expanding the tax base, reducing the complexity of compliance, and stimulating consumption-driven economic growth. These reforms have largely rationalised GST slab rates by lowering the current four-tier structure (5%, 12%, 18%, and 28%) into a neater three-tier one: 5% for necessities, 18% for the general rate on most goods and services, and a new 40% slab on luxury and sin goods. This reform will be implemented from 22nd September 2025. It is expected to make the GST system more transparent, efficient and growth-oriented.

Simplification and Transparency

The proposed two-tier structure of 5% and 18% which covers most of the goods and services, while the 40% slab covers luxury and sin goods, is aimed to make the GST system simple for every stakeholder. Traders and businesses faced numerous challenges under the old regime due to overlapping and unclear rates, such as 12% versus 18% slabs or 18% versus 28%. The new regime looks simpler and neater with no confusion in compliance. It will bring down disputes, improving tax administration. It will bring down the compliance costs for businesses, particularly MSMEs.

India's Protectionist Economy: A Shield in Need

Indian economy has traditionally been regarded as protectionist, with policies intended to shield local industry while exposing to healthy global competition. While some critics have argued that the approach suppresses growth and creativity, others argue that it is warranted because of the economic and social conditions in the country. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India to grow at 6.4% in 2025, which clearly demonstrates the power and potential of India.

The protectionist policies have imposed a few non-tariff as well as tariff trade barriers, but not harmed the economy. Instead, India's growth story is one of incremental liberalization, with the government balancing to let in foreign investment while protecting national interest. The dairy sector is one such example, where India has not let itself be opened to foreign competition, lest it face the consequences on country-specific farmers and the rural economy.

The recent trade tensions with the United States have solidified India's protectionist stance. In the negotiations of the interim trade agreement, India did not acquiesce, rejecting proposals that accommodated American interests at the expense of Indian farmers and dairy farmers. The US had proposed allowing the entry of American dairy products, including non-vegetarian milk, which was seen as a threat to India's dairy industry. However, in the case of non-vegetarian milk, ethical considerations relating to religious sentiments is another important reason.

India Needs to be Tough with MNCs

When you are negotiating with a bully who is a narcissist, you need to confront wisely and skillfully; otherwise, the bully will keep creating ruckus for you. However, India has to tread very carefully as it has an opposition which is hell bent to down Narendra Modi at any cost. The Opposition wouldn't hesitate even if their actions would be damaging national interests because the same opposition has cheerleaders in the form of millions of supporters. However, India needs to be diplomatically strategic with multinational companies (MNCs) even if the opposition doesn't support this.

Microsoft has restricted Nayara. It cannot access its data. Whatever has happened in this case needs urgent attention from the government. India needs to take a tough stand against such MNCs which go against the interests of the Indian economy. The Nayara case is enough to show a tough face to Microsoft India. It must be made very clear to Microsoft India that it is registered in India and that it has to protect Indian interests first than to serve the American interests. The same message must be conveyed to other companies also.

विकास बढ़ा रुतबा चढ़ा

भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था जापान को पीछे छोड़ते हुआ दुनिया की चौथी सबसे बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था बन गई है। अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष (आईएमएफ) की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, भारत की जीडीपी ने 4.187 खरब डॉलर है। इस आर्थिक विकास ने भारत को वैश्विक स्तर पर सबसे तेजी से बढ़ने वाली प्रमुख अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में से एक बना दिया है। इस विकास यात्रा में विभिन्न वैश्विक चुनौतियों के दौरान भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था ने लचीलापन और अनुकूलनशीलता प्रदर्शित की है, जिसमें कोविड-19 महामारी, आपूर्ति शृंखला व्यवधान और भू-राजनीतिक तनाव भी शामिल हैं।

आर्थिक विकास में कृषि व विनिर्माण जैसे पारंपरिक क्षेत्रों के अलावा सेवा और प्रौद्योगिकी क्षेत्र की महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका रही है। ये क्षेत्र न केवल अर्थव्यवस्था को संरचनात्मक विविधता प्रदान करते हैं, बल्कि विकास के वाहक और जोखिम शमन तंत्र प्रदान करने के साथ-साथ भारत को दुनिया का उत्पादन केंद्र बनने के इसके सपने को आधार भी प्रदान करते हैं।

Who is Terrorist?: Entrepreneurs or Terrorists

India dreams of becoming a developed country by 2047. It is not impossible to achieve this big and ambitious dream but it is definitely very difficult; almost near impossible if all the players don’t do their parts properly. The biggest difficulty in this is the mind-set of Indian citizens and that situation is very peculiar.

A strange belief has developed in the Indian psyche, which considers traders and big businessmen as criminals and capital as wrong and sometimes sinful. Poverty has been glorified in Indian texts (however, poverty was glorified for the Brahmans, the knowledge preachers and the teaching community). Not only this, the Indian media as well as the society have developed a tendency to give a clean chit to criminals based on caste and region. Corruption has become such a dignified act that it is now the new normal to come out of the vicious circle of poverty. Not only this, even in terrorists, the family background of terrorists and who is a teacher's son often becomes a topic of national discussion!

India's GDP may become 50 trillion dollars, and per capita income may even exceed that of America, but as long as India keeps looking for criminals among traders and big businessmen and a teacher's son among terrorists, it is impossible for India to become a truly developed country.

Should India Respond to the Unilateral Reciprocal Tariffs?

India has become an important player in international trade post its integration with the global economy after liberalisation in the 1990s. At present, India has a trade-to-GDP ratio of about 40%. India mainly exports textiles, medicines and IT services while importing petroleum products and high-tech machinery. Reciprocal tariffs are used as tools either to retaliate or challenge the trade balance. The USA has announced it to impose 26% tariffs on Indian exports to the USA. Though the USA has pushed a 90-day pause button for most countries, barring China and a few countries which have responded to the 2nd April annulments of the US President.

Reciprocal tariffs are in alignment with mercantilist principles and aimed at protecting the domestic markets by matching the foreign trade barriers. According to the classical theory of trade (Ricardo), tariffs distort comparative advantage and increase consumers' costs lowering welfare. Reciprocal tariffs can, however, protect infant industries and balance out trade deficits. For India, an emerging economy with both mature and infant industries, the effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs would depend upon the extent, targeting, and tenure.