West Asia Conflict is Slowing Down Indian Economy

Indian economy is showing resilience and is expected to grow at 6.7%, but the ride is expected to be bumpy. It is caught in a problem for which it has no solution on its own. It is completely dependent on other parties.

The conflict in West Asia between the US and Iran has proved a double-edged sword for India. It is hurting India from two sides. India is facing energy challenges in terms of limited access to energy sources as well as high prices on one hand, which is turning the mathematics against the Indian economy as it induces inflation in the economy and increases current account deficit and rupee volatility. This is hurting demand in the economy. On the other hand, India's $50 billion in exports to the Middle East have almost come to a halt. This is pausing economic activities in India. Firms exporting to the Middle East are forced to pile up inventories as these firms are unable to ship their final products to their buyers despite long-term contracts. Their export consignments are caught and hanging in the balance in the firing zone between the US and Iran. This is resulting in slow manufacturing activities and lower labour demand. This has started the vicious circle.

New Tariffs by Trump in the Name of Forced Labour

A person consumed by spiteful rivalry often goes to great lengths to cause trouble for their rival, even if it means suffering a loss themselves. US President Donald Trump’s behaviour mirrors this mindset; in his zeal to 'fix' other nations, he repeatedly deals blows to the American economy.

India will certainly be adversely affected by the new tariff, as will other nations. However, it is ultimately the American citizens who are paying the price for Trump's love for tariffs. By the way, President Trump has populaized tariffs in a such a that now it does feel like an economic term even for a layman!

One wonders: is this merely the US President's spiteful rivalry at play, or is he, knowingly or unknowingly, becoming a Trojan horse for America in general and the American economy in particular?

Numbers don't Always Draw the Real Picture

Core sector output climbed to a five-month high of 5% in June. That's up from 3.2% in May and 1.1 percentage points higher than a year ago. Also, GDP growth is expected to be around 6.7% in the first quarter. But one may wonder whether everything is good on the economic front?

On the construction and public-works story, cement and electricity output each rose 9.8%, and iron ore, just added to the index, jumped a staggering 43.9%. But one must remember that the activities in these sectors don’t represent broad-based industrial revival. During the same period, crude oil output fell 4.2% in June, and natural gas production dropped 7.4%. The energy sector is under huge pressure. Activities in the energy sector actually tell you whether real economic activities such as manufacturing, transport, and consumption are picking up or not.

India is Fine Tuning its Export Strategy

India's export strategy and structure have undergone a significant shift following the imposition of tariffs by the US. As a result of the strategy to diversify exports into new markets, the share of shipments to countries outside Europe and NAFTA reached approximately 59% during April–May 2026. In the same period last year, the combined share of Europe and NAFTA stood at around 46%, down from 41% now. While a 5% shift might seem modest, it is far from insignificant; it reflects India's evolving priorities.

The disparity in India's export growth across different global regions reveals the true story. Exports to NAFTA grew by only 2.6% and to Europe by 4%, whereas shipments to ASEAN surged by 66.9%, Africa by 53.1%, North-East Asia by 30.7%, and South Asia by 40.2%. Double-digit growth was also recorded in exports to Latin America and Oceania. Together, ASEAN and Africa contributed an additional $7.6 billion in exports compared to the same period last year, playing a major role in overall growth.

Protection is not Helpful for Economies

Protection may be helpful for an economy in the short tem. But in long-term or permanent protection rarely does. Gita Gopinath's observation that tariffs made Americans pay more for inferior goods reminds me of a lesson India learnt the hard way before the 1991 reforms. For nearly four decades, India followed an import substitution strategy with high average tariff rates exceeding 87% by the late 1980s. The objective was to build domestic industries. The outcome was mixed. We created an industrial base, but we also created complacency. Consumers paid high prices for products that were often technologically outdated and of lower quality (we all remember the Ambassador car and years-long waiting lists for a telephone).

Tariffs reduce competitive pressure, create deadweight losses, and encourage X-inefficiency. Firms protected from global competition have fewer incentives to innovate, improve productivity, or upgrade quality. Consumer surplus falls while producer surplus rises, but society as a whole loses. That is exactly why India's manufacturing productivity accelerated only after the 1991 reforms, when tariffs were sharply reduced and competition increased.

India is Decreasing the Share of US Dollar in Its Treasury Holdings

The US dollar's share in India's treasury holdings had been steadily increasing till mid-2024. However, since the US imposed tariffs on India, India has been steadily reducing the share of the US dollar in its treasury holdings and increasing the share of precious metals instead in its holdings. The share of the US dollar in India's treasury holdings is now at its lowest level in the last six years. It was at $241 billion in October 2024, which fell to $190 billion in October 2025. By April 2026, the US dollar’s share in Indian treasury further fell to $181 billion.

This trend has gained momentum not only in India but globally. After the US imposed tariffs on its trade partners, countries around the world are seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar. While it is true that there is currently no alternative to the US dollar, the world is looking for alternatives. This is why the share of local currencies in global bilateral trade is gradually increasing.

Restoration of Commercial LPG Supply is a Good News for Indian Economy

The government has resumed the supply of commercial LPG. This is positive news for the economy as well as the energy sector. Since the conflict between the US and Iran, and blockade of the Hormuz had completely shattered the energy supply chains for India. Many energy-importing economies, including India were hit hard as the availability and prices of gas as well as petroleum products had become to volatile.

With a deal between the US and Iran, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is now normalizing benefiting India to huge extent. This is expected to result in gas supplies gradually restoring to the normalcy. So this decision is not only the first step toward the normalization of the energy market will improve the availability of essential fuel for industries, commercial establishments, and the service sector, thereby supporting production and business activities.

It will take time before the prices of commercial gas starts easing if global supply conditions improves. So it will be premature commenting on significnat drop in the prices of the gas. Because the war between the US and Iran has resulted into huge structual challeneges with destruction and damages to the capacity of gas plants in the Middle East. So the capacity constraints and long-term supply contracts already locked in will continues to exert pressure on the prices. So, the gas supply will improve gradually.

Where is the Indian Rupee Moving?

Many are wondering, where is the Indian rupee moving?

The Indian rupee depreciated about 9% in the last one year. But post the US-Iran peace deal announcement, it has recovered about 1.5% in a matter of a few days!

So many are wondering, why has the rupee recovered?

Considering the inflation differential between economies, historical norms, Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), and Real Effectively Exchange Rate (REER), the Indian rupee is highly undervalued by 6-7% relative to its current market value.

REER is about 88 and NEER is 91 in the month of May 2026. These two values clearly indicate that the rupee is undervalued. Any value below 100 is considered as undervalued.

This undervaluation is not being caused by macroeconomic fundamentals. But it stems from the risk-off sentiments and equity market outflows. This is driving the rupee’s nominal spot rate down.

Should RBI Allow the State Bank's Plan to Securitize its Home Loan Portfolio?

Is history poised to repeat itself?

SBI's plan to securitise a portion of its home loan portfolio suggests exactly that, evoking memories of the 2008 global financial crisis.

State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest bank in India. Its practices and actions in the market go on to impact the entire Indian banking sector.

State Bank is planning to securitise a portion of its ₹10 trillion home loan portfolio. It must be noted that deposits are slowing in India, and Indian banks are struggling to mobilise enough deposits to match the demand for loans due to low interest rates. SBI is not an exception to it. So SBI, with the purpose of diversifying its funding sources, is considering raising funds by securitising its home loan portfolio by issuing mortgage-backed securities to institutional investors. This plan aims to boost liquidity and expand its lending capacity.

This move of SBI revives the memories of the 2008 global financial crisis originating in the USA. American banks aggressively securitised subprime mortgage contracts and sold them to investors worldwide. This became one of the most profitable businesses, which led to excessive risk-taking, weak underwriting standards and complex financial products. Once the supply overpowered the demand, it resulted in widespread defaults across the US, which eventually led to the collapse of major financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and AIG. Then a severe global recession followed.

How is the US-Iran Peace Deal Helping India?

Since the US-Iran Peace deal has been announced, the fall of Indian Rupee has not only stopped but reversed. In the last 2 weeks, Indian Rupee has appreciated by ₹1.62 rupees against the US dollar which is about 1.7%. However, in the last one year, the Indian rupee has depreciated by about 9% against the US dollar.

This reversal has happened just because of one single factor; the US-Iran Peace deal which has brought down the Brent crude oil below $80/barrel.

So the value of the rupee is directly linked to domestic and global macro-economic factors. Therefore, anyone claiming that the exchange rate of the Indian Rupee against the US dollar touching to 100 is just a number and should not be cause of concern, is either sentimental or ignoring the hard facts.

Everyone knows that higher the exchange rate, the sooner the forex exchange will dry. This will lead to multiple problems for the economy.