Trump’s Tariffs, Global Chaos and Opportunities for India

The aggressive tariff policy followed by the US president is shaking up the world economy, old alliances and the old world order. President Trump has not only imposed tariffs on its trading partners but has also blocked the WTO's rules, shattering the institution. He is pushing for the purchase of Greenland while regularly striking India through policy initiatives or statements. ‘America First’ policy and Trump’s MAGA are cracking the global order and alliances. In the case of Europe, the issue of Greenland is becoming a bone of contention among the NATO partners (the US and the European countries). His policy choices are ransacking and negatively affecting the trade, alliances and trust everywhere. This move by Trump would have broader consequences for the world, the US and the US dollar in the coming days.

Tariffs Demolish WTO Rules

The US President Trump's 2025 tariffs are going completely against the WTO rules. The US is ignoring WTO limits as per WTO rules on non-discrimination and fair disputes. The WTO's Appellate Body, the dispute settlement body of the WTO, has been in crisis since 2019. The US has blocked the appointment of new judges, raising the issue of overreach and sovereignty. This has weakened the Appellate body, and as a result,t the unilateral tariffs imposed by the US remain unpunished. China has filed complaints against the US challenging the US tariffs, but nothing happened, and nothing is expected to be enforced because ofthe dominant position of the US in the WTO. It is pushing other countries to opt for solo protectionism and focusing bilateral and regional alliances. This has led to friendshoring. As per the UN forecast, post-Trump’s tariffs, the global growth has dipped to 2.7% in 2026.

Afghanistan Pakistan Conflict and the USA

The war between Afghanistan and Pakistan at the Durand Line has erupted is attracting the attention of the whole world. However, they have started, it seems that the US has begun implementing its grand plan to seize Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan, which the US vacated on 1 July 2021 after its occupation for 20 years.

The manner in which Pakistan has provoked Afghanistan and initiated unilateral aggression against Afghanistan clearly suggests that Pakistan received orders from US President Donald Trump to do so. Presently, President Trump has been showing his keen interest in Bagram Airbase. Pakistan is trying to please the American President by sacrificing its soldiers.

This conflict will likely drag on for longer than expected, and then, in the name of peace, the US will jump in and seize Bagram Airbase! If it happens in the future, Pakistan will not only fully cooperate with the US in this endeavour but will also put in all its efforts. Afghanistan has been cosying up to India, and it is upsetting for Pakistani establishments. They are not just uncomfortable but want to reverse it as soon as possible. However, at present, post Operation Sindoor, Pakistan is in no position to directly stop India in Afghanistan, so the best option left for it is intervention by the US which wants to get back to Afghanistan through Bagram Airbase.

Deloitte and Unethical Use of Artificial Intelligence

Suppose a company like Deloitte becomes dependent on AI for preparing reports that will ultimately influence government policies, which in turn affect the common person on the street. In that case, AI is not a helpful tool but a malaise. The situation at Deloitte had been so bad in the referred case that the company had to refund the Australian government! It must be noted that Deloitte is one of the Big Four!

Most companies are indeed providing numerous artificial intelligence tools to improve the productivity of the workers, and it is a good and wise decision. The use of AI is good towards this end. However, if, unfortunately, AI makes workers complacent, lazy and sometimes over-dependent on AI, then it is a very risky proposition. The problem is that AI uses the data that is available on the web, and consultancy is not about some kind of generalisation of task, but customised solutions. So what was done at Deloitte was not only completely unprofessional and unacceptable but also unethical.

Are Fees on H-1B Visas a Boon for India?

Sometimes, your biggest adversary (bane), who resorts to bullying, turns into your biggest friend (boon). The adversary in disguise who is out to help you achieve your goals.

The US has imposed a $100,000 annual fee for H-1B visas for foreign workers and a 3.5% tax on foreign remittances. This is a targeted decision. 71% of H-1B visas are held by Indian citizens, and a major portion of these visa holders send money back to India.

This decision by the US government will directly and adversely affect Indians aspiring to go to the US for a career. The brightest talents (students and professionals) have been migrating to the dreamland of the America to pursue their dreams which couldn’t find an ecosystem and environment in India. Not only this, but also the Indian government has been investing billions of dollars every year in these talents to educate and train them. This has resulted in increased costs for India. Apart from this, millions of dollars are flowing to the US for education in US universities and higher education opportunities.

Trump Unnecessarily Playing Victim Card

The US President Donald Trump is projecting the US as the greatest victim of India in trade in his social media post after the SCO summit 2025, which went well attended! He is trying to write a good script for a drama about his reckless foreign and trade policies gimmicks. However, the following are facts about the US trade with India and the rest of the world:

As far as the US trade deficits with its trading partners are concerned, there are some interesting and unusual facts.

US-India trade (exports and imports) was $212 billion in 2024, and a trade deficit of $41.5 billion. The US deficit with China is $270 billion, which is 128% of the total trade between the US and India. The US trade deficit with India is nearly one-fifth of the US trade deficit with China.

With the EU, this deficit is $161 billion, about four times that of the deficit with India. With other countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Thailand, the US trade deficit is respectively $157 billion, $113.1 billion, $67.4 billion, $62.6 billion, $60.2 billion, 54.8 billion and $41.5 billion.

Trade Tensions, Tariffs, and the Future of Global Trade

“While world trade hit new peaks in 2024, uncertainty has increased as geo-economic tensions increase, supply chains are disrupted, and tariffs surge.” 

 

- UNCTAD, 2024

In 2025, the global trade environment is being defined by rising trade tensions and the return of tariffs as a leading economic policy weapon. As the world recovers from pandemic-related disruptions, nations are increasingly resorting to protectionism deploying national security, industrial sovereignty, and geo-economic strategy.

The New Wave of Tariffs

The governments have historically been using tariffs and non-tariff barriers as economic tools to protect their domestic industries from foreign competition or punish foreign countries. However, post-pandemic, there has been an increase in the tendency of some big economies to resort to tariffs. Global trade has been flourishing for a long time. More than sixty per cent of the global trade doesn’t attract any tariff, but the remaining trade is often subjected to very high trade tariffs and other non-tariff barriers. Agriculture, textile and dairy sectors are such areas where there are high trade barriers in the form of tariffs and non-tariff restrictions.

Impact of the US Tariff on India

India has become an important player in international trade since its integration with the global economy following liberalisation in the 1990s. According to World Bank data, India's trade-to-GDP ratio was 45% and its exports-to-GDP ratio was 21.2% in 2024. India mainly exports textiles, medicines and IT services while importing petroleum products and high-tech machinery. The USA has announced to impose 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the USA, which is a setback for the Indian economy.

Tariffs are in the alignment with mercantilist principles and aimed at protecting the domestic markets by matching the foreign trade barriers. However, according to the classical theory of trade (Ricardo), tariffs distort comparative advantage and increase consumers' costs, lowering welfare. So tariffs imposed by any country can, however, protect infant industries and balance out trade deficits. For India, an emerging economy with both mature and infant industries, the effectiveness of tariffs depends upon the extent, targeting, and tenure.

India's Protectionist Economy: A Shield in Need

Indian economy has traditionally been regarded as protectionist, with policies intended to shield local industry while exposing to healthy global competition. While some critics have argued that the approach suppresses growth and creativity, others argue that it is warranted because of the economic and social conditions in the country. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India to grow at 6.4% in 2025, which clearly demonstrates the power and potential of India.

The protectionist policies have imposed a few non-tariff as well as tariff trade barriers, but not harmed the economy. Instead, India's growth story is one of incremental liberalization, with the government balancing to let in foreign investment while protecting national interest. The dairy sector is one such example, where India has not let itself be opened to foreign competition, lest it face the consequences on country-specific farmers and the rural economy.

The recent trade tensions with the United States have solidified India's protectionist stance. In the negotiations of the interim trade agreement, India did not acquiesce, rejecting proposals that accommodated American interests at the expense of Indian farmers and dairy farmers. The US had proposed allowing the entry of American dairy products, including non-vegetarian milk, which was seen as a threat to India's dairy industry. However, in the case of non-vegetarian milk, ethical considerations relating to religious sentiments is another important reason.

India Needs to be Tough with MNCs

When you are negotiating with a bully who is a narcissist, you need to confront wisely and skillfully; otherwise, the bully will keep creating ruckus for you. However, India has to tread very carefully as it has an opposition which is hell bent to down Narendra Modi at any cost. The Opposition wouldn't hesitate even if their actions would be damaging national interests because the same opposition has cheerleaders in the form of millions of supporters. However, India needs to be diplomatically strategic with multinational companies (MNCs) even if the opposition doesn't support this.

Microsoft has restricted Nayara. It cannot access its data. Whatever has happened in this case needs urgent attention from the government. India needs to take a tough stand against such MNCs which go against the interests of the Indian economy. The Nayara case is enough to show a tough face to Microsoft India. It must be made very clear to Microsoft India that it is registered in India and that it has to protect Indian interests first than to serve the American interests. The same message must be conveyed to other companies also.

Will India Use these Tariffs as an Opportunity?

Donald Trump has unilaterally imposed a tariff of 25% plus a penalty on Indian exports, citing its trade with Russia. While giving concessions to China, even though Chinese trade with Russia is far higher than that of India. Not only this, but the USA is also buying many critical items from Russia. In 2024, the US had a trade of $3.5 billion with Russia, and China's trade with Russia was about $240 billion in the same year. However, in the meantime, India and the USA are negotiating an interim trade deal, and this announcement has come amidst a series of negotiations!

The recent tariff imposition by Donald Trump on Indian exports seems like a strategic move rather than an abrupt decision. There are a few reasons which are forcing the USA to take such steps.:

Trump's Annoucements May be a Boon for India

Donald Trump has unilaterally imposed a tariff of 25% plus a penalty on India for trading with Russia and China despite the fact that the USA is also buying from Russia as well as China. However, India and the USA are negotiating an interim trade deal and this announcement has come amidst the series negotiations!

One may wonder what could be the possible reasons? Is it an abrupt announcement by Trump? Or a well thought strategy of the Trump Administration?

There are a few reasons which are forcing the USA to take such steps. First, India has taken a very tough stand on the issue of agriculture, dairy and some metals and is not ready to give any space to any country in these categories and the USA is desperately looking for new markets for its agriculture and dairy products. Second, the US realizes very well that the innings of the US as the most powerful economy in the world is going to be over soon in a decade and the export business of dollars wouldn’t continue unchallenged for long. Not only BRICS but many other countries are also looking for alternatives to the US dollar.

The Rise and Fall of the Bretton Woods System

Both the World Wars proved to be very beneficial for the United States and particularly, the Second World War. In the First World War, the US made huge fortunes through loans and arms sales to Allied Nations. It amassed huge reserve of gold and resulting in the USA becoming a creditor nation. The Second World War transformed the USA into a superpower of the world, which was later challenged by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR or today's Russia). The WWII boosted the US industries at a time when the whole Europe and Japan was devastated. By 1945, the US held 70% of world gold reserve. The Bretton Woods System put the foundation of an economic and financial architecture in the world, which transformed the USA into a formidable economic force which none could ignore and the US currency, US dollar (USD) global reserve currency.

Why None Supported India during Operation Sindoor?

For those questioning India's foreign policy, they need to read the following piece of information (news clipping).

'India aims to sell defence equipment worth Rs 50,000 crore to the world by 2029.'

The size of the world defence market is more than $600 billion, and by 2029, the market is expected to grow to the size of around $900 billion. Rs 50,000 crore is less than $4 billion, which is about just 2% of the total global market! So this piece of information may look very ordinary. But the fact is that it is not. It is a matter of concern for every country; those which export defence equipment to other countries of the world and those which import defence equipment from other countries.

India has traditionally been an importer and a net buyer of defence equipment. But India aspires to become an exporter of defence equipment, and that too in some key areas, which are dominated by developed countries and China only. Not only this, but India seems to be very aggressive about it. That means there is another serious player on the block, which is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world in just a few years and has a very young population that wouldn’t only drive demand and growth in the economy but would also engage in research and development!

History of the US Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the World

There was a streak of events in history that made the economy of the US strong enough following the British economy that its currency, the US dollar, is now the world's reserve currency.

It all began in the late Eighteenth century when the USA emerged to be one of the most significant economies for numerous economies of the Western world, especially Latin America.

Early Beginnings

• 1785: The United States formally designated the dollar as its currency following the Continental Congress' declaration.
• 1792: The Coinage Act founded the U.S. Mint and implemented a fixed-basis bimetallic standard using gold and silver.
• 1800s: As the British pound sterling, the world's largest Empire's currency, dominated world trade, the U.S. dollar slowly increased in stature as the economic power of America developed.

The 19th century witnessed the United States evolving from a fledgling power to a powerhouse of economics. As the industrial strength of America grew, so did the global presence of its currency, the US dollar. Nevertheless, throughout the 19th century, sterling was still the world's most prevalent reserve currency, leaving very little room for any other currency. But the US dollar continued to grow its footprint and became indispensable to most countries in bilateral exchanges with the US as the US reconfigured its industrial capacity. The British Sterling was still the most powerful currency in the world during the 19th century.

Changing US Trade Policy and World Economy

The trade policy of America has evolved over one century post the First World War. As soon as the Second World War started, the USA saw an opportunity in that war that was going on in Europe and elsewhere in the world. The US was convinced that Europe would undergo the hammer of the war, and post-war, a lot of reconstruction and other business opportunities were openly available. The fall of Japan in the war made the USA the only big economy in the world to take care of the needs of Europe and the rest of the world!

The US invested in capacity building across all the sectors, which eventually helped to earn huge money during wartime. Because of the wartime crisis, the US accepted gold for transactions, which led to a huge accumulation of gold in the US. Following World War II, the United States provided the Marshall Plan (European Recovery Plan) to Western Europe to rebuild Europe, championing free trade by reducing interstate trade barriers and globalisation, helping establish the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and later the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This system aimed to gradually reduce global trade barriers.

Is Golbalization Going Dead?

The US President Trump has announced reciprocal tariffs. However, it is available with a rider of a 90-day pause for most of the economies except China and a few other retaliatory economies. This has created chaos in the whole world in general and the security markets in particular. Now, the US has the highest average import tariffs since 1938, when its tariffs peaked at 15.5%, which started falling once the Second World War started in 1939. Post implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the average import tariff rate would be 14.5% in comparison to 2.4% in 2024.

It should be noted that globalisation and free trade were the brainchildren of the USA, which were implemented across the globe through the UNO, IMF, World Bank, WTO (erstwhile GATT) and other multilateral agencies and negotiations to achieve the economic goals of the developed economies in general and the USA in particular. The US used these two concepts and these agencies to turn the US dollar into the reserve currency of the world, eventually replacing gold.

Should India Respond to the Unilateral Reciprocal Tariffs?

India has become an important player in international trade post its integration with the global economy after liberalisation in the 1990s. At present, India has a trade-to-GDP ratio of about 40%. India mainly exports textiles, medicines and IT services while importing petroleum products and high-tech machinery. Reciprocal tariffs are used as tools either to retaliate or challenge the trade balance. The USA has announced it to impose 26% tariffs on Indian exports to the USA. Though the USA has pushed a 90-day pause button for most countries, barring China and a few countries which have responded to the 2nd April annulments of the US President.

Reciprocal tariffs are in alignment with mercantilist principles and aimed at protecting the domestic markets by matching the foreign trade barriers. According to the classical theory of trade (Ricardo), tariffs distort comparative advantage and increase consumers' costs lowering welfare. Reciprocal tariffs can, however, protect infant industries and balance out trade deficits. For India, an emerging economy with both mature and infant industries, the effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs would depend upon the extent, targeting, and tenure.

Anything But China

America's new motto is 'Anything But China'. Considering the dominating personality of the US President Trump which is more consistent with the US’s image of Inspector, the present day US seems to be quite against Chinese hegemony in manufactured goods which dominates not only the US markets but the whole world ignoring the fact that it is the US who allowed China to create manufacturing hegemony to just keep dollar as only global exchange and reserve currency. However, a lot of water has gone through the rivers, and China aspires to become the new Inspector of the world and the US is not liking this!

President Trump started a trade war against China in 2018, which couldn’t achieve much for the US. However, in this, he seems to be determined to tame China by imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods. In response to the US tariffs, China announced retaliatory tariffs against the US to counter the 2nd April announcement of the US President and has been caught red-handed. The US has increased the tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%. The US has retaliated against every country that has increased tariffs against the US when it pushed a 90-day pause button on the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs. However, if the world sustains this shock, it will accelerate the de-dollarisation movement, and this movement will gain momentum as the US has indirectly announced that it doesn’t want to be the big brother of inspector of the world!

Relationship of India with the UAE

In geopolitics and foreign policy making, things are often very long term, move slowly and look very deceptive and sometimes illusive also. From outside they often seem to move in the north direction but actually they lead in the south direction or might be in the east or west. It can be anything.

From the way the world perceives India today, it is very clear that India is doing well in the foreign policy making and positioning and placing its bets and people.

Relationship of India with most of the nations across the globe is improving dramatically. This is also true in the case of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The relationship of India with the UAE has never been so strong the way it looks today and it is becoming stronger day by day. None could have even thought of it 10-15 years back but Modi Government has done wonders in the last ten years to completely change it by serving and securing the economic interest of UAE.

Globalisation or Regionalisation?

COVID has been a learning experience for all countries across the globe. There is not a single country which was not negatively impacted; mostly in the form of supply-chain disruptions. As a result, countries have been focusing on domestic markets on both sides; demand and supply sides. So at present, their focus is revolving around increasing domestic production as well as consumption. This is more true in emerging economies like India, China, Brazil and South Africa. China is working on increasing domestic consumption while India, South Africa and Brazil are tirelessly working to increase manufacturing in their own domestic markets. However, all four countries of the BRICS bloc are working to increase their export share in global trade and this is pushing the globalisation movement forward.

However, since COVID supply-chain disruptions, many intellectuals have been talking about de-globalisation and predicting that de-globalisation would soon become a new phenomenon. It is quite possible that in the future de-globalisation may become more evident than today, but at present de-globalisation seems to be just another phrase being overused by academia! At least, the data says so.