Middle East Crisis: It's Judicious Time than to Respond in Haste

Post the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family in a US-Israeli led joint attack, the second phase of the US-led regime change effort in Iran has moved to the next stage. The first phase was to cause an internal protest against the Khamenei regime that had been gaining momentum in urban and rural Iran for months stirring Irani citizens in and outside Iran. Now, in the third phase, Iran's former dynasty, the Pahlavi dynasty, which still enjoys considerable support in Iran, will likely emerge in a leaderless Iran.

There is a claim that there is a three layered succession plan and Khamenei’s son me take over as final the Supreme Leader of Iran. However, this doesn’t sound fullproof. Ayatollah Khomeini was not father of Ali Khamenei as popularily believed. So even if there is a line of succession, there will be conflicts in absence of strong leadership. This will further worsen Iran's internal situation even, and the IRGC will be unable to control the situation even if it wishes to. It is quite possible that there will be internal conflict in the ranks and files of IRGC and it will possibly lead to collapse and split in the IRGC and a fanfiction being promoted by the US on the line of Taliban. It is quite possible post chaos, there will a factional which will try to capture Tehran the way Taliban did in Afghanistan.

It is possible that in the fourth phase of the regime change, the US will avoid making the mistake of Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan and hand over power to the Pahlavi dynasty. It seems to be the safest bet as of now in ever evolving situation in Iran.

This situation is a negative news for India's economic interests in the short term. There is blockade and it may for longer than expected. So there is a strong possibility of inflation rising on due to rising oil prices. Furthermore, speculation will also negatively impact the market. A sharp fall in the stock market is possible.

The geopolitical chessboard is becoming increasingly sensational. Iran will want to prolong this conflict like the Russia-Ukraine war, while the US will insist on a quick end. However, it now all depends on how United the IRGC remains in the difficult times like when each and every influential commondar will be poached with lucrative offers by the US-Israel alliance.

There's no doubt that Ali Khamenei was wrong for Iranians. Nevertheless, the manner in which the US, under Trump's instructions, assassinated President Maduro of Venezuela is dangerous for global peace. The ugly face of US bullying under Trump's leadership is being exposed to the world. Now, its on the world to take cognizance of the same. Most possibly nothing will happen and European forces will come along the US in the aggression against Iran. However, it must be clear that agreeing with Trump on Khamenei or Maduro means digging a grave for the future of global peace.

But at the same time, it doesn't mean one can be emotional about Khamenei's assassination in a joint US and Israeli air strike, one must also understand that Khamenei never hesitated to criticize India. For him, Islam was paramount, and foreign relations came second to it. Therefore, this is not the time to be emotional, but to react judiciously. Indian government seems to be behaving in that judicious direction. A fierce war is raging in the Middle East. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is already dead. In response, Iran has attacked 10 countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Israel. But Indian leaders appear indifferent to this situation!

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has only condemned the attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel and expressed solidarity with them. There was no mention of Iran or any other country! Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi has simply tweeted a general condemnation of the Middle East crisis, without naming any country. Surprisingly, Rahul Gandhi, who has always been a vocal critic of the government, appears to be agreeing with the Prime Minister's views! Obviouslly, the Ministry of External Affairs is doing its job round the clock.

What does this response mean for Indian foreign policy? Is it merely a deliberate but belated response or a complete policy shift?

Being blindfold by some ideological or emotional bias, it's better to protect your interest.

Dr Rajeev K Upadhyay