India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 29th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 29th May 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 8,134 on 29th May 2020. This is the highest daily increase. As a result, 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 6,962 and 6,260 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. Daily case counts are expected to hit 10,000 mark within 10 days considering the increasing number of districts infected by the coronavirus.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were -4.4% and 3.1% respectively on 29th May 2020. For the first time in since 30th Jan 2020, the daily growth in the active case has become negative. However, this is due to very high increase in recovery. If it has been due to fall in the daily counts, it would have been better. But still, it is good. If this counties longer, it will bring down the pressure on the healthcare system for better response to coronavirus as well as diseases patients.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 22.5 days on 29th May 2020 due to unusual but very high recovery. This has brought down the daily growth rate to 3.1%. Expect this to continue in future too.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 13.8 days with a growth rate of 5.1% on 29th May 2020. After days in a row, there was an incremental decline in the doubling period. However, the daily growth count was the highest till now.

5. Even after a five times increase in the numbers of tests per million in India in the last one month, the gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate and has almost doubled. This is good as the recovery rate is getting stronger and the proportion of active cases is decreasing. This is good for a nation like India with very limited healthcare services.

6. The confirmed cases per test is increasing for more than 2 weeks in a row. This is not good at all. However, Active cases per test has gone down 2.4% after more than 2 weeks. But this is due to an unusual increase in recovery. This is not a trend. At least at this moment, any forecast about trend reversal on one day change is not possible. Also unless there is a reversal in the upward trend, the corona curve would not flatten.

7. The ratio of recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to rise. The ratio of recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) increased to 47.7% on 29th May 2020. There was a 5% increase in recovery rate in just one day due to very high recovery count. This is a good sign. Also, corona patients are recovering in an average of 14-17 days. This is the most satisfactory factor and gives hope that even if the economy is opened, it would not be a difficult situation for the country.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 29th May 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling. For the first time since 30th Jan 2020, the corona curve has bent in a favourable direction. Hope that this continues in future too.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has increased to 2.9% on 29th May 2020 due to very high increase in death data; mainly by Delhi. However, the final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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