Corona Update: 30th Jan 2022

From the daily data as on 30th January 2022, it is clear that the third wave seems to be reversing now as every day the numbers of new daily cases are falling and soon the third wave will be over. The 7-days growth rate in daily confirm cases has fallen from 26.9% on 2nd Jan 2022 to -2.9% on 30th Jan 2022.

Apart from the fall in the growth rate in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID 19, the 7-days growth rate in the active cases has also fallen to -2.8% on 30th Jan from 21.9% on 9th January 2022. The new cases in most of the big metro cities are falling.

Corona Update: 23rd Jan 2022

From the daily data as on 23rd January 2022, it is clear that the trend of the previous week has reversed and the numbers of daily new infections had increased to the highest of the third wave at 3,47,041 to start falling. Like the previous waves, many peaks and troughs are expected. So this reversal in trend mightn’t be the final one. However, the ‘R’ value has fallen from 2.9 on 31st December 2021 to 1.57 on 21st January 2022. It is expected that in the next two weeks by 6th February 2022, the ‘R’ value would fall below 1 and after that the Corona curve is expected to start flattening. Also the 7-days growth rate in daily confirm cases has fallen from 26.9% on 2nd Jan 2022 to 3.7% on 23rd Jan.

Corona Update: 16th Jan 2022

From the daily data, it seems that the third wave of the Coronavirus pandemic has hit its peak (preliminary conclusion). However, to arrive at a strong conclusion, longer duration data with integrity and transparency in reporting by states is a compulsory condition. There have always been questions regarding the transparency and integrity of the reported data. So on the basis of just two weeks’ data, it is too early to arrive at a conclusive interference.

Onset of Third Wave of COVID19 Infections

It is less than two weeks since the new cases of COVID19 infections have started witnessing significant increase and India is in the middle of the third wave of infections overtaking the peaks of the previous two waves. The rate at which the new infections are increasing is alarming and everyone must be careful observing social distancing and wearing masks.

The numbers of daily reported confirmed cases as on 9th January 2022 are very high in the very beginning of the third wave in comparison to the previous waves of infections. Daily reported confirmed cases may soon cross the second wave's peak in the month of January itself.

Is the Pandemic Over?

The second wave has been devastating for India with very high numbers of daily new infections and deaths from the coronavirus. Even today, the number of new infections from the COVID19 has been hovering around 40,000 for more than four weeks. Numbers of active cases have fallen down to 4.15 lakhs with daily death falling to the 7 days average of more than 750 (excluding 12th July data). There are seven states which are recording more than one thousand daily cases accounting for more than 80 percent of the national total. Of these seven states, five states are recording more than two thousand cases a day and Kerala is recording more than ten thousand cases a day. Around 24 percent of the total population has received at least one dose of vaccine while only 6.3% of the total population has received both the doses! The average of daily vaccine doses being administered in India is hovering around 3 millions for months. This average clearly indicates that it will take more than a year before half of the population in India is fully vaccinated.

Vaccination Drive Must Intensify in India

India started its vaccination drive on 16th January 2021 by vaccinating the front-line workers including doctors, paramedical staff and police officials. As on 13th July 2021 total doses of 38,76,97,935 have been administered in the last 179 days or about six months. This gives an average of 21,65,910 doses every day. Even the 7 days moving average is 37,67,770. However India had One Day Show of vaccination with a total 87,29,3030 vaccine doses on 21st June 2021 when vaccination drive was made open to all citizens of 18 years and above. Many states are again witnessing long queues outside the vaccination centres.

Fatality is lower in the Second Wave of COVID19 in India

Every single death from COVID19 is unfortunate but the second wave of the pandemic had devastating for India. There was not just panic all around but the whole healthcare system of India had collapsed. Every coronavirus related medicine was short in supply and price of sky-rocketed. Thousands of people died just due to lack of hospitalization, oxygen and medicines. All the claimed preparations during the first wave of infection and the lockdown seemed to have completely failed. However the second wave was far fiercer in comparison to other pandemics where the second waves are found to be less fierce.

Corona Vaccine for All

Coronavirus has already infected more than 18 crores people across the globe. More than 39 lakh individuals have also succumbed to this deadly virus. These are the reported statistics relating to the coronavirus pandemic. Lakhs of people are left with no family and thousands of children have become orphans. Crores of people across the globe have lost their livelihoods and have been forced into the vicious circle of poverty and are struggling for a square meal a day! World economy is left in lurch and there lies only uncertainties ahead. All this is happening when the governments, non-governmental organizations as well as the citizens across the world have been trying to provide the maximum support to everyone in need in the times of pandemic! Even at this point of time when hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccines have been administered to people, everyday more than 3.5 lakhs of individuals are getting infected with the virus and more than 7 thousands individuals giving their life to this undying virus.

Fatality is Far Lower in the Second Wave of COVID19 in India

Every single death from COVID19 is unfortunate but every media outlet is creating panic by showing the dead bodies but none tells that the numbers of death per lakh tested positive is far less in the second wave than the first wave.

In the first wave, Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was 1.43 per cent but in the second wave it is only 0.57 per cent. That means more than 99.4 per cent of infected individuals are recovering over time in this wave. This clearly indicates that Indian health system has learned a lot in the last one year. And this is a good news that every citizen must know to defuse the panic behaviour which on rise. Media outlets rather all the time creating panic should also focus on this side of the pandemic.

Daily COVID19 Infections Doubles in 10 Days to 200000 Cases

On 14th April 2021, India recorded almost 2,00,000 new coronavirus infections in the last 24 hours. Actually a total of 1,99,584 new cases have been recorded. It took only 10 days in doubling the total numbers of cases from one lakh to two lakh. However, of the total daily new COVID19 cases, more than 61.5 percent infections are recorded only in five states namely in decreasing order Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. Similarly of the nationwide total tally, more than 50 percent of COVID19 infections in India have been recorded only in five states namely in decreasing order Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. This clearly tells the gravity of the situation in these states. The situation in Maharashtra is going out of control. There is a need for an immediate response to the prevailing condition from the central government irrespective of the negative views of the government. All this is happening despite the fact that India has already administered more than 114 million doses of vaccines to its citizens and ranks third in the world in the numbers of vaccine doses administered along with increasing cover of the lockdown (night curfew and weekly lockdown) across the nation.

Vaccination is the Only Way Out of the Coronavirus Pandemic

With every passing day, the total numbers of the new coronavirus infections a day are increasing and hitting new peaks. In the last 24 hours, around 1.7 lakh new cases have been recorded across India which is almost double of the peak of the first wave. In every single state, the numbers of reported new infections are increasing and many states like Delhi, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Punjab, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh etc. are recording the highest ever new COVID19 infections.

The Second Wave of COVID19: Hospitality and Education Sectors to Suffer the Most

The second wave of the coronavirus infections is going to hit every sector of the economy. If the daily numbers of infections remain very high for a longer period, it will derail the business confidence to some extent and slow down the recovery cycle in the economy. A part of the economic recovery and the improving sentiments and the confidence in the economy is expected to reverse due to the increasing COVID19 infections and falling mobility in the economy. But it must be noted that Indian economy, like all other economies, has adjusted to the new but harsh realities relating to the Coronavirus pandemic. Due to this, the recovery process is not going to halt and is expected to continue but at a slower rate than expected. However, the hospitality and education sectors along with the allied sectors will have to bear the brunt of the second wave of the COVID19 infections the most.

The Second Wave of Coronavirus Infections and Indian Economy

It is quite possible that India will touch the previous coronavirus peak of 97,860 daily new cases in a few days! The way new daily cases are being recorded for the last few weeks, it wouldn't be surprising that India may cross the one lakh mark today itself! The second wave of infections is in full swing in India despite the fact that India had successfully flattened the corona curve with less than 10,000 daily infections. What does it tell? Is this an achievement? No! Clearly, it is not. Rather we collectively as a nation have failed ourselves in the fight against COVID19 by letting our guard off. It is happening when we have already vaccinated more than 7.3 crores individuals till yesterday with more than 30 lakhs daily vaccine doses. This really poses a question if we as a nation and society have learned anything from the previous experiences? From the prevailing situation, it can comfortably be said that besides the medical professionals (low case fatality rates) and the policy makers (no knee jerk policy response), we have learned very little or nothing!

Increasing Cover of Lockdown to Affect Economy Adversely

The following graphs clearly indicate that there is another wave of coronavirus in India. The battle which India had almost won by flattening the corona curve is now again at our doors. Across states and cities citizens and the state governments as well as the administrations are not serious enough about it. Now across the country the most effective tool and weapon against the COVID19 outbreak is the social distancing but it seems to be a thing of past for the most. Most of the people are now completely relying COVID19 Vaccine but it is too early. Until and unless more than half of the population is vaccinated, complete dependence on vaccine would be risky proportion.

COVID19 India: Observation from 17th September 2020 Data

A few observations from 17th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 96,792 to the total of 52,12,686 on 17th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 1.93% and the doubling period falling to 36.25 days. After a consecutive fall for the last three days, daily counts again started increasing. This has been happening since the beginning. It clearly indicates that this pandemic wouldn’t be over soon.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.1% with a doubling period of 63.42 days with the active case count of 10,18,454 on 17th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing.

COVID19 India: Observation from 15th September 2020 Data

A few observations from 15th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 91,096 to the total of 50,18,034 on 15th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.0% and the doubling period falling to 34.94 days. After a consecutive fall for the last three days, daily counts again started increasing. This has been happening since the beginning. It clearly indicates that this pandemic wouldn’t be over soon.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.51% with a doubling period of 46.22 days with the active case count of 9,96,832 on 15th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing.

COVID19 India: Observation from 14th September 2020 Data

A few observations from 14th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 81,911 to the total of 49,26,914 on 14th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.04% and the doubling period falling to 34.3 days. For the last three days, daily counts are falling. Hope this converts into a trend.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.64% with a doubling period of 42.62 days with the active case count of 9,89,860 on 14th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing.

COVID19 India: Observation from 13th September 2020 Data

A few observations from 13th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 93,215 to the total of 48,45,003 on 13th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.05% and the doubling period falling to 34.1 days. The moving averages indicate a clear upward trend in the daily count. India hasn’t yet hit the peak of the coronavirus pandemic.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.61% with a doubling period of 43.36 days with the active case count of 9,88,205 on 13th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing.

COVID19 India: Observation from 12th September 2020 Data

A few observations from 12th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 94,409 to the total of 47,51,788 on 12th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.09% and the doubling period falling to 33.5 days. The moving averages indicate a clear upward trend in the daily count. India hasn’t yet hit the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. In the next few days, the daily count of 1,00,000 would be the new normal. From the daily positivity rate and growth rate of the daily case count, it seems that by the end of October 2020, India will have a total of 10 million COVID19 cases.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.75% with a doubling period of 39.95 days with the active case count of 9,73,876 on 12th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing. By the end of October 2020, it is expected that India would have more than 2 million active cases.

COVID19 India: Observation from 11th September 2020 Data

A few observations from 11th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 97,654 to the total of 46,57,379 on 11th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.12% and the doubling period falling to 33 days. The moving averages indicate a clear upward trend in the daily count. From the data, it seems that India hasn’t yet hit the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. In the next few days, the daily count of 1,00,000 would be the new normal. From the daily positivity rate and growth rate of case count, it seems that by the end of October 2020, India will have a total of 10 million COVID19 cases.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.8% with a doubling period of 38.92 days with the active case count of 9,58,435 on 11th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing. By the end of October 2020, it is expected that India would have more than 2 million active cases.