Is the Pandemic Over?

The second wave has been devastating for India with very high numbers of daily new infections and deaths from the coronavirus. Even today, the number of new infections from the COVID19 has been hovering around 40,000 for more than four weeks. Numbers of active cases have fallen down to 4.15 lakhs with daily death falling to the 7 days average of more than 750 (excluding 12th July data). There are seven states which are recording more than one thousand daily cases accounting for more than 80 percent of the national total. Of these seven states, five states are recording more than two thousand cases a day and Kerala is recording more than ten thousand cases a day. Around 24 percent of the total population has received at least one dose of vaccine while only 6.3% of the total population has received both the doses! The average of daily vaccine doses being administered in India is hovering around 3 millions for months. This average clearly indicates that it will take more than a year before half of the population in India is fully vaccinated.

A large number of epidemiologists are forecasting the third wave of infection in and the pattern of daily infections across different states is the following the pattern of the first wave. It clearly indicates that the risk of the third wave is not a hoax but a real threat. Even Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has also rung the bell but none is paying heed to. But the way people have let the guard off and are not adhering to the coronavirus protocols and the governments are again allowing gatherings (religious and all kinds), it is quite possible that in a month or two, the forecasted third wave may become a reality in India. And if that happens, it would hit India at the core. The economy may be sailing through in this rough weather but millions of people are bound to fall back into poverty and it will take decades again to pull them back from the vicious circle of poverty.

So there rises a question; Is the Pandemic Over?

Rajeev Upadhyay

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