From the daily data as on 23rd January 2022, it is clear that the trend of the previous week has reversed and the numbers of daily new infections had increased to the highest of the third wave at 3,47,041 to start falling. Like the previous waves, many peaks and troughs are expected. So this reversal in trend mightn’t be the final one. However, the ‘R’ value has fallen from 2.9 on 31st December 2021 to 1.57 on 21st January 2022. It is expected that in the next two weeks by 6th February 2022, the ‘R’ value would fall below 1 and after that the Corona curve is expected to start flattening. Also the 7-days growth rate in daily confirm cases has fallen from 26.9% on 2nd Jan 2022 to 3.7% on 23rd Jan.
Apart from the fall in the growth rate in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID19, the 7-days growth rate in the active cases has fallen to 3.7% on 23rd Jan from 21.9% on 9th January 2022. The new cases in many metro cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Delhi are falling and these cities seem to have already hit the Corona peak. ICMR has also lifted the compulsory contact tracing condition in Kolkata and Mumbai as ‘R’ values in these cities are below 1 and in Delhi and Chennai, it is around 1.
These altogether are good indicators and India can hope that in the next 3-4 weeks, the third wave of COVID19 infection would be over. However, testing in cities like Delhi and states has fallen down by more than 50% and this is a cause of concern. Because there is a need for pandemic management rather than headline management. Apart from these, a lot would depend on COVID19 situation in poll bound states.
Good news is that a study suggests that there is a lower likelihood of further waves post March 2022 as any further infection would be local in nature.
Dr. Rajeev K. Upadhyay
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