Increasing Cover of Lockdown to Affect Economy Adversely

The following graphs clearly indicate that there is another wave of coronavirus in India. The battle which India had almost won by flattening the corona curve is now again at our doors. Across states and cities citizens and the state governments as well as the administrations are not serious enough about it. Now across the country the most effective tool and weapon against the COVID19 outbreak is the social distancing but it seems to be a thing of past for the most. Most of the people are now completely relying COVID19 Vaccine but it is too early. Until and unless more than half of the population is vaccinated, complete dependence on vaccine would be risky proportion.

Cases are increasing in almost every state but states like Maharashtra and Kerala have performed the worst in this fight against the coronavirus. These two states have contributed almost 70% of daily total cases and 72% of total active cases in India. However, Maharashtra has completely failed in controlling another wave of COVID19. Districts like Pune, Nagpur, Mumbai, Thane and Nashik have contributed the most in the number of cases. In total numbers of daily cases Maharashtra’s share is more than 62%.

In many states, governments are imposing night curfews in many cities. Many cities like Nagpur and Akola have been put under limited time but complete lock down conditions. It is quite possible that many other cities and districts are put under complete lockdown. If this trend continues and many cities also have to be brought under lockdown conditions, it will reverse the momentum that has been gained in the economy due to the flattening corona curve and vaccines and the whole business and economic environment and sentiments will be impacted adversely in the economy. The condition in the economy will be even more complex due to the limited capacity of the governments to spend and provide support because of a very high fiscal deficit which is expected to be more than 12% which would be coupled by the increasing inflation and limited scope available to the RBI for monetary policy adjustments.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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