A few observations from 11th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-1. COVID19 new case count increased by 97,654 to the total of 46,57,379 on 11th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.12% and the doubling period falling to 33 days. The moving averages indicate a clear upward trend in the daily count. From the data, it seems that India hasn’t yet hit the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. In the next few days, the daily count of 1,00,000 would be the new normal. From the daily positivity rate and growth rate of case count, it seems that by the end of October 2020, India will have a total of 10 million COVID19 cases.
2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.8% with a doubling period of 38.92 days with the active case count of 9,58,435 on 11th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing. By the end of October 2020, it is expected that India would have more than 2 million active cases.
3. The overall positivity rate was 8.44% against the daily positivity rate of 8.9% on 11th September 2020. Daily positivity rate hovers around 8%. This needs to fall for a trend reversal. Total tests done were 10,91,251 with a cumulative total of 5,51,89,226.
4. The overall recovery rate increased to 77.76% against the world average of 71.81% on 11th September 2020. The daily recovery rate was 83.41%. After long, the overall as well the daily recovery rates have fallen for two days in a row.
5. Case fatality rate has fallen to 1.66% as on 11th September 2020 against the world’s average of 3.21%. It has been consistently falling early April in India.
Rajeev Upadhyay
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