Daily COVID19 Infections Doubles in 10 Days to 200000 Cases

On 14th April 2021, India recorded almost 2,00,000 new coronavirus infections in the last 24 hours. Actually a total of 1,99,584 new cases have been recorded. It took only 10 days in doubling the total numbers of cases from one lakh to two lakh. However, of the total daily new COVID19 cases, more than 61.5 percent infections are recorded only in five states namely in decreasing order Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. Similarly of the nationwide total tally, more than 50 percent of COVID19 infections in India have been recorded only in five states namely in decreasing order Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. This clearly tells the gravity of the situation in these states. The situation in Maharashtra is going out of control. There is a need for an immediate response to the prevailing condition from the central government irrespective of the negative views of the government. All this is happening despite the fact that India has already administered more than 114 million doses of vaccines to its citizens and ranks third in the world in the numbers of vaccine doses administered along with increasing cover of the lockdown (night curfew and weekly lockdown) across the nation.

Ten states namely Maharashtra, Delhi, Goa, Chandigarh, Nagaland, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh in decreasing order have higher positivity rate than the national average of 5.4 percent in India. This is another cause of concern. There are states like Delhi which starts testing less randomly for no visible reason. This must stop. The positivity rate in Maharashtra and Delhi was more than 10 percent on 14th April 2021.

Similarly there are 15 states out 36 states being tracked for the infections that have higher case fatality rates than that of the national average of 1.2 percent namely in decreasing order Punjab, Sikkim, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Goa, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh.

All the high case load states have recovery rates lower than that of the national average of 88.3 percent and higher active ratio than that of the national average of 10.5 percent. Most importantly, at present there are about 15 million active cases in India and the active cases are increasing at a faster rate than the recovery rate. It will result in the larger numbers of active cases and India might not be in condition to provide with proper healthcare services considering the news reports already reporting that patients are not being attended. In such conditions, the case fatality rate may increase.

Among all the states, Chhattisgarh has the highest active ratio at 24.4 percent and the lowest recovery rate at 74.5 percent but lower case fatality rate than the national average. The positivity rate is also higher than that of the national average. Surprisingly, Chhattisgarh has been reporting very high numbers of infection for some time despite the low population density in comparison to many states.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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