India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 1st June 2020 Data

A few observations from 1st June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 7,722 on 1st June 2020. After one week, the daily counts of coronavirus cases have gone down. If it continues, it would be the biggest relief. However, the risk of community transmission still looms large in India. Although, the 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 7,632 and 7,003 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. Daily case counts are expected to hit 10,000 mark within 7 days considering the increasing number of districts infected by the coronavirus.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 3.9% and 2.77% respectively on 1st June 2020. These numbers are lower than the previous period. And after more than a week, these numbers are falling continuously.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 25.3 days on 1st June 2020. This has brought down the daily growth rate to 2.2.77%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 14.2 days with a growth rate of 4.95% on 1st June 2020. The incremental decline growth rate continues increasing in the doubling period. However, the daily growth count was the highest till now.

5. Even after a five times increase in the numbers of tests per million in India in the last one month, the gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate and has almost doubled. This is good as the recovery rate is getting stronger and the proportion of active cases is decreasing. This is good for a nation like India with very limited healthcare services.

6. The confirmed cases per test is increasing for more than 2 weeks in a row. This is not good at all. However, Active cases per test is hovering around 2.4% since the last 3 days. Unless there is a reversal in the upward trend of confirmed cases per test, the corona curve would not flatten.

7. The ratio of recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to rise. The ratio of recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) increased to 48.3% on 1st June 2020. Corona patients are recovering in an average of 14-17 days. This is the most satisfactory factor and gives hope that even if the economy is opened, it would not be a difficult situation for the country.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 1st June 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has increased to 2.83% on 1st June 2020.. However, the final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million. However, death per million in India has increased by more than four folds from 0.91 to 4.15 while during this period for the world, it has increased from 30.63 to 49.7. India is still in a growth phase while most countries in the world are in a decline phase.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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