India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 4th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 4th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 9,838 on 4th June 2020. This is the highest ever increase in the daily count. The risk of community transmission looms large in India. From the data, it seems in many states, community spread is now an unfortunate reality. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 8,765 and 7,749 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. Daily case counts are expected to hit 10,000 mark within 7 days considering the increasing number of districts infected by the coronavirus.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 4.9% and 3.2% respectively on 4th June 2020. Daily growth fell but the 7 days growth rate increased.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 22 days on 4th June 2020. This has brought down the daily growth rate to 3.2%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 14.9 days with a growth rate of 4.7% on 4th June 2020. The incremental decline in the growth rate continues increasing in the doubling period. However, the daily growth count was the highest till now.

5. Even after a five times increase in the numbers of tests per million in India in the last one month, the gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate and has almost doubled. This is good as the recovery rate is getting stronger and the proportion of active cases is decreasing. This is good for a nation like India with very limited healthcare services. Most importantly India was able to test around 5,000 tests a day which has increased to more than 1,40,000.

6. The confirmed cases per test is increasing for more than 2 weeks in a row. This is not good at all. The active cases per test have also started increasing. Unless there is a reversal in the upward trend of confirmed cases per test, the corona curve would not flatten.

7. The ratio of recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to rise. The ratio of recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) decreased to 47.8% on 4th June 2020. All indicators of recovery are moving in downward direction. This is an unexpected turn. Corona patients are recovering in an average of 14-17 days. This is the most satisfactory factor and gives hope that even if the economy is opened, it would not be a difficult situation for the country.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 4th June 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has increased to 2.8% on 4th June 2020. However, the final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million. However, death per million in India has increased by more than four folds from 1.08 to 4.71 while during this period for the world, it has increased from 32.04 to 51.77. India is still in a growth phase while most countries in the world are in a decline phase.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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