India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 28th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 28th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count decreased by more than 2% to 19,610 on 28th June with 7-days and 14-days averages of 17,471 and 15,171 respectively. A conclusive change in the reversal of the trend before the 3rd week of July 2020 looks distant. States can control the spread with strict lockdown in the containment zones. The very high increases in the daily counts in the last few days are temporary and will settle soon.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases increased to 3.74% with a 7 days growth rate to 2.63% on 28th June. 7-days growth must keep on falling to flatten the swelling corona curve to enable the healthcare system to respond better to the pandemic.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 26.7 days on 28th June with 7-days growth rate of 2.63%. However the increasing daily positivity rate is eroding all the gains.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 19.1 days with a growth rate of 3.7% on 28th June. The incremental decline in the growth rate continues increasing the doubling period for long. A sharp decline in the growth rate will help flattening the corona curve.

5. The gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday. It will ease the increasing pressure on the very limited healthcare infrastructure and services in India. The daily testing capacity in India has increased to an average of more than 2,20,000 tests.

6. The overall positivity rate increased to 6.54% with a daily positivity at 11.5% on 28th June. India needs to increase testing capacity in urban centres to undo the community transmission. Testing and tracing alone wouldn't be enough but the strict social distancing practices.

7. The overall recovery rate was 58.6% on 28th June with an decreased daily recovery rate. This incremental increase in the overall recovery rate should continue. Corona patients are recovering in an average period of 14-17 days. It will take months before this outbreak comes to a conclusive end. Resuming economic activities to pre-COVID period would be a long drawn battle.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 28th June. With every passing day, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling. The corona curve is moving in the same direction.

9. The overall case fatality rate has slightly decreased by 4 basis points to 3.0% on 28th June. Case fatality rate is expected to fall below the 3% mark.

10. The daily death count crossed the 7-days average. However media outlets are reporting that the patients are either not being treated or admitted in the hospitals. This will increase case fatality rate. India must save human lives to compensate for the economic cost.

11. The numbers of patients in India are increasing but India is still doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million with an average of 12.21 against the world average of 66.43.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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