COVID19 India: Observation from 7th September 2020 Data

A few observations from 7th September 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 75,022 to the total of 42,77,584 on 7th September 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.14% and the doubling period falling to 32.7 days. The daily count fell after seven days. However, the moving averages indicate a clear upward trend in the daily count and this fall in the numbers of daily count doesn’t seem to indicate trend reversal. From the data, it seems that India hasn’t yet reached the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. Also in the next few days, the daily count of 1,00,000 would be new normal. From the daily positivity rate and growth rate, it seems that by the end of October 2020, India will have a total of 1,00,00,000 COVID19 cases.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.7% with a doubling period of 41.16 days with the active case count of 8,83,348 on 7th September 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing everyday. The pressure on the healthcare infrastructure in India is increasing. By the end of October 2020, it is expected that India would have more than 20,00,000 active cases.

3. The overall positivity rate was 8.44% against the daily positivity rate of 6.83% on 7th September 2020. Daily positivity rate hovers around 8%. This needs to fall for a trend reversal. Total tests done were 10,98,621 with a cumulative total of 5,06,50,128.

4. The overall recovery rate increased to 77.65% against the world average of 71.25% on 7th September 2020. The daily recovery rate was 98.80%. The daily recovery rate is almost remaining higher than the overall recovery rate.

5. Case fatality rate has fallen to 1.70% as on 7th September 2020 against the world’s average of 3.26%. It has been consistently falling early April in India.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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