India is Rewriting its Energy Strategy in Silence

Everyone thinks India is silent on the Iran–Israel war… but what if that silence is actually a strategy?

While rumours scream “fuel crisis,” something very different is happening behind the scenes. No press conferences. No noise. Just calculated moves.

India is quietly reshaping its entire energy playbook.
In the next few days:

 
350,000 tonnes of LPG from the US will arrive.

Argentina is sending another 19,000 tonnes. India has already bought 31,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, in comparison to 22,000 tonnes last year!

 
Fertilisers from Russia and Jordan are on the way for the farm and household sector.

 
And Russia? Still India’s biggest crude supplier despite all pressures from the US.

Iran Allows India, China and Turkey to Transit through the Strait of Hormuz

Imagine a 34-kilometre-wide waterway that carries about one‑fifth of the world’s oil, and then one country suddenly closes it to almost everyone. Post the Iran-Israel war, Iran has done this by blocking the Straits of Hormuz. Now, Iran is opening the Strait of Hormuz again, but only for select nations: India, China, and Turkey.

What does this really mean? It is not just a military move; it’s a deep‑rooted economic power play that will hit the global economy. In this high‑stakes economic game, India is right in the middle.

This isn’t just war news; it’s a textbook case of geopolitics shaping global supply chains, trade costs, and inflation.

Iran's Hormuz Blockade and Its Impact on Indian Exports

The Strait of Hormuz crisis poses a serious threat to India, given that its exports to the Gulf amount to 57 billion dollars. Oil imports are being disrupted, and shipments to Europe are being further delayed as fuel prices surge. This growing war may soon blow up the grocery bill!

Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The Strait of Hormuz crisis broke out on February 28 when the US and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Operation Epic Fury. Iran responded by launching missiles on US bases, Israeli cities, and Gulf countries such as the UAE and Bahrain, and shutting down the Strait on March 2, stopping maritime traffic. About 2.5 million barrels per day, which is 50% of India’s oil import, passes through the Strait of Hormuz primarily from Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This is driving oil and gas prices up in India.

Impact on Oil and Fuel Prices

India imports about 5 million barrels per day of oil from other countries, of which 2.5 million bpd passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This has made India’s situation vulnerable to continued blockade. The 40 per cent of the east-bound oil flows are blocked, and gasoline and diesel prices have soared 15-20 per cent since early March, driving inflation in transport and food prices.

Impact of Iran-Israel War on Indian Exports to Iran

India’s exports to Iran are now facing serious uncertainty because of the escalating conflict between Iran and the US-Israel Joint Force.

Iran has been an important market for Indian goods. In 2024, India exported products worth about 1.25 billion dollars to Iran. Indian exports include basmati rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery.

But this war has disrupted these trade flows. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Indian basmati rice are currently stuck at ports or in transit, as shipping routes and insurance coverage have been disrupted.

Upset Over Narendra Modi's Israel Visit

India's secular intellectuals and media houses are outraged by the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel. More than the Prime Minister's visit, they are upset by the fact that in his speech, the Prime Minister referred to Hamas as terrorist organization and the October 7th Hamas attack as a terrorist attack. Their displeasure is further compounded by the fact that the Prime Minister has agreed to several cooperation agreements to give a new dimension to India-Israel relations.

Well!

These people argue that India has changed its policy direction on the Palestine issue. India has always supported Palestine on the Palestine issue, but now India has retreated from that policy. These intellectuals continue to call this change in direction wrong.

Well, if this is the argument, then one question must be asked: what has India gained as a result of this one-sided support to Palestine?

Let's assume that Palestine is very poor and facing hardship. It has no technology or any special scientific achievements that could benefit India. No problem. Then, Palestine can at least support India on international forums and refrain from making negative comments on India's internal issues. India can certainly expect this much, and it's justified. But what is the reality?

Who is Next? Russia, Chana or India

We all may have an illusion that we, as human beings, have become a civilised race, but the fact is that we still are living in those same barbaric days when muscle power used to decide who would own the land. Even today, if you don't have muscle power, you have no sovereignty and dignity. Anybody can snatch from you, and if you resist those powerful people, they will kill you, declaring you a threat to the human race!

Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and Nicolas Maduro (yet to be killed) were overthrown and killed by the US. Not because they attacked the US, but because they challenged the US hegemony and the Petro-Dollar to survive the US sanctions!

Afghanistan Pakistan Conflict and the USA

The war between Afghanistan and Pakistan at the Durand Line has erupted is attracting the attention of the whole world. However, they have started, it seems that the US has begun implementing its grand plan to seize Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan, which the US vacated on 1 July 2021 after its occupation for 20 years.

The manner in which Pakistan has provoked Afghanistan and initiated unilateral aggression against Afghanistan clearly suggests that Pakistan received orders from US President Donald Trump to do so. Presently, President Trump has been showing his keen interest in Bagram Airbase. Pakistan is trying to please the American President by sacrificing its soldiers.

This conflict will likely drag on for longer than expected, and then, in the name of peace, the US will jump in and seize Bagram Airbase! If it happens in the future, Pakistan will not only fully cooperate with the US in this endeavour but will also put in all its efforts. Afghanistan has been cosying up to India, and it is upsetting for Pakistani establishments. They are not just uncomfortable but want to reverse it as soon as possible. However, at present, post Operation Sindoor, Pakistan is in no position to directly stop India in Afghanistan, so the best option left for it is intervention by the US which wants to get back to Afghanistan through Bagram Airbase.

Taliban's Moral Position is not India's Burden

Most of the so-called intellectuals are unhappy that there was not a single woman in the press conference held at the Embassy of Afghanistan. They were upset not because the Afghan Minister held a press conference in which there were no women, but they were upset by how and why India allowed this to happen. Is this not weird?

However, it is pleasant to witness that the Afghan side finally realised that they made a mistake and reversed that they held another press conference where women journalists were allowed. So the public pressure that was built in India did miracles and even Taliban len Afghan government was forced to change their stance on women; at least in India.

But the question is, why are Indians unhappy with the Indian government for something in which they had no role? It was neither India’s moral responsibility to lecture the Taliban nor in favour of Indian interests. So, India did the right thing by keeping mum on the issue. However, as per the convention and for their kind information, the agitating party must note that the concerned press conference was held in the Embassy of Afghanistan, and it doesn't fall under the jurisdiction of India, but of the Government of Afghanistan.

Trump Unnecessarily Playing Victim Card

The US President Donald Trump is projecting the US as the greatest victim of India in trade in his social media post after the SCO summit 2025, which went well attended! He is trying to write a good script for a drama about his reckless foreign and trade policies gimmicks. However, the following are facts about the US trade with India and the rest of the world:

As far as the US trade deficits with its trading partners are concerned, there are some interesting and unusual facts.

US-India trade (exports and imports) was $212 billion in 2024, and a trade deficit of $41.5 billion. The US deficit with China is $270 billion, which is 128% of the total trade between the US and India. The US trade deficit with India is nearly one-fifth of the US trade deficit with China.

With the EU, this deficit is $161 billion, about four times that of the deficit with India. With other countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Thailand, the US trade deficit is respectively $157 billion, $113.1 billion, $67.4 billion, $62.6 billion, $60.2 billion, 54.8 billion and $41.5 billion.

Anything But China

America's new motto is 'Anything But China'. Considering the dominating personality of the US President Trump which is more consistent with the US’s image of Inspector, the present day US seems to be quite against Chinese hegemony in manufactured goods which dominates not only the US markets but the whole world ignoring the fact that it is the US who allowed China to create manufacturing hegemony to just keep dollar as only global exchange and reserve currency. However, a lot of water has gone through the rivers, and China aspires to become the new Inspector of the world and the US is not liking this!

President Trump started a trade war against China in 2018, which couldn’t achieve much for the US. However, in this, he seems to be determined to tame China by imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods. In response to the US tariffs, China announced retaliatory tariffs against the US to counter the 2nd April announcement of the US President and has been caught red-handed. The US has increased the tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%. The US has retaliated against every country that has increased tariffs against the US when it pushed a 90-day pause button on the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs. However, if the world sustains this shock, it will accelerate the de-dollarisation movement, and this movement will gain momentum as the US has indirectly announced that it doesn’t want to be the big brother of inspector of the world!

Ukraine Enters and Captures Russian Land

Ukraine has attacked Russia and entered Russian territory Kursk and advancing in Southern Russia. This has irked Russia and Vladimir Putin. The obvious response would be a very harsh attack with more intensity. This bold move of Ukraine to attack and enter into Russia has unlocked the frozen conflict, with quid pro quo response. Russia was not expecting such a response from Ukraine. So Russians have been taken by surprise. Though, it would be very difficult for Ukraine to hold its position in Russian lands. So the key to the outcome of this move completely depends on Ukraine's ability to sustain and hold on to this gain which wouldn't be that easy for Ukraine with a relatively very small army and lesser military equipment, even though NATO is there to support Ukraine from outside!

As per the claims by Ukraine's top commander, Ukrainian forces control about 1,000 sq km of Russian territory of Kursk. This claim seems exaggerated but let’s accept it as it is. Though, nevertheless, it is the biggest cross-border incursion since the beginning of the war. This is going to completely change a lot of things in both Russia and Ukraine. The said incursion and capture of Russian lands by the Ukrainian army will increase support for the Ukrainian President Zelensky among the nationalist Ukrainians. But at the same time, this will also expand the support base for the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin was being questioned by many Russian citizens for this unending war. This war with Ukraine was expected to become the Vietnam moment for Russia. But this incursion has given more power and reasons to Putin to fight this war with more intensity with no question being asked internally. So this will make his claims in Ukraine more valid than ever!

Bangladesh Chooses Anarchy Preferring Coup Over Sheikh Hasina

The violent protests against reservation in Bangladesh eventually forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina not only to resign but also to flee Bangladesh! Military has taken over Bangladesh forcing Sheikh Hasina to leave! However, Muhamaad Yunus, a Nobel laureate in economics for his contribution in the field of microfinance, has been installed as Interim Prime Minister of Bangladesh by the Deep State and Bangladesh Army.

This incident is bound to have an impact on the whole world. But it will have a huge ramification for India in the short to medium term. Till date, India had to deal with only one Pakistan on its borders. But now it will have to deal with two Pakistans; West Pakistan and East Pakistan! This is a classic example of intelligence failure of RAW, the external intelligence agency of India.

After Sheikh Hasina's exit, the Awami League will weaken and its place will be taken by the BNP, which is known for opposing India and being the front for the Islamists extremists. Also, the BNP has the full support of Pakistan, China and the Biden government of the USA. This is going to completely change the dynamics of the Indian Subcontinent.