Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 28th April Data

A few observations from 28th April data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-
1. Doubling period is still around 10.5%. There is no improvement in it since last three days.
2. Numbers of total active cases are growing at increasing rate and growth in recovered cases is slower in comparison to yesterday.
3. Growth rate in active cases has overtaken the growth in recovered cases in comparison to yesterday.
4. The total numbers of confirmed cases are increasing. Maharashtra's numbers rose steeply yesterday. 10 days moving average however slowing down but if Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi numbers don't go down, trend will change.
5. Confirmed cases per million is increasing at increasing rate in country.
6. India is fairing far better than many countries on account of death per million. However, it has increased to 0.75 per million.
7. Death/total cases ratio is increasing since last three days in row.
8. Delhi may witness trend reversal with bigger numbers of fresh infections as new cases per tests are increasing at increasing rate.
9. Maharashtra and Gujarat needs to be very careful as there is no significant improvement and situation is alarming.
10. West Bengal is still testing in small numbers.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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