Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 27th April Data

A few observations from yesterday’s data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. Total recovered cases growing at higher rate than that of the total active cases. This indicates that lockdown is working for India.

2. Growth in active cases is lower than that of the growth in recovered cases and the trend is continuing for the last few days. This pandemic will be over in a few months.

3. India has the lowest death rate per million in comparison to the US, UK, France, Italy, Spain and China.

4. Doubling period has increased from 10 days to around 10.5 days in the last two days.

5. 10 days moving average for death to total cases are falling continuously for many days.

6. Confirmed cases per million growing but not at growing rate.

7. 10 days moving average for total confirmed cases to total tests are falling continuously for many days.

From the above data and previous data, it can be comfortably said that in a few weeks the number of coronavirus infections would be so low that it would become a new normal for India. However, zero cases wouldn't be possible without vaccinations. So India has to slowly adapt to new social behaviour.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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