India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 15th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 15th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New cases are increasing everyday. In the last one week numbers of new cases increased by more than 3700 new cases everyday. Even 14 days and 21 days daily average are respectively around 3500 and 3000 new cases everyday. It is quite possible that average daily growth in confirmed cases would soon increase to 4000 new cases.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates are 2.6% and 4.1% respectively and decreasing but even this rate of growth in daily cases is high.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 17.2 days on 15th May 2020 from 15.6 days on 14th May 2020.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases has increased to 12.4 days with a growth rate of 5.7% on 15th May 2020 against 11.7 days on 14th May. The doubling period is continuously increasing since the last five days.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. The active cases per test is continuously falling and the confirmed cases per test is hovering around 4% for the last one week.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 35.2%.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 15th May 2020.
9. Death to total confirmed cases are now stabilizing at 3.2% rather than falling.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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