India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 14th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 14th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New cases are increasing everyday. In the last two days numbers of new cases were higher than that of the 7 days average of 3500 new cases. This is not good if this trend continues in future. It will make this battle against coronavirus a very long drawn exercise.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases overtook the 7 days growth rate on 14th May 2020 increasing from 3.5% to 4.7%. Previously it was continuously falling for many days.

3. However, the 7 days growth rate of active cases continues the downward trend and has fallen to 4.5% with an increased doubling period of 15.6 days.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases has increased to 11.7 days with a growth rate of 6.1%. The Doubling period has been increasing since the last four days.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. The confirmed and active cases per test are not falling. Rather these have become stagnant with a slight upward trend.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase but new recovery to new cases have fallen from 5.2% to 3.9%.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 13th May 2020.

9. Death to total confirmed cases are now stabilizing at 3.2% rather than falling.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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