India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 21st May 2020 Data

A few observations from 21st May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New case count increased by 6026 on 21st May 2020 with increased 7 days and 14 days averages of 5168 and 4420 new case counts. Daily counts as well as averages of new cases are increasing everyday at an increasing rate. 2 weeks average is moving to 5000 count every day.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 4.3% and 3.7% respectively on 21st May 2020. There is an upward trend in 7 days average and is not a good sign as the base is getting bigger.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 19.3 days on 21st May 2020 with a growth rate of 3.7%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases has increased to 13.4 days with a growth rate of 5.4% on 21st May 2020. It seems that there may be reversal in trend as doubling is decreasing.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. Confirmed as well as active cases per test has again started posting upward movement for the last two days indicating trend reversal.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 4.1%.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 21st May 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing.

9. Death to total confirmed cases have started falling in the last few days as a result of increased recovery rate. Final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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