India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 20th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 20th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New case count increased by 5547 on 20th May 2020 with increased 7 days and 14 days averages of 4853 and 4216 new case counts. Daily counts as well as averages of new cases are increasing everyday at an increasing rate.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 3.8% and 3.7% respectively on 20th May 2020. There is an upward trend in 7 days average and is not a good sign as the base is getting bigger.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 19.2 days on 19th May 2020 with a growth rate of 3.7%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases has increased to 13.2 days with a growth rate of 5.4% on 20th May 2020. It seems that there may be reversal in trend as doubling is decreasing.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. Confirmed as well as active cases per test has again started posting upward movement for the last two days indicating trend reversal.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 40.5%.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 20th May 2020.

9. Death to total confirmed cases have started falling in the last few days as a result of increased recovery rate. Final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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