India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 19th May 2020 Data

It seems that downward trend is reversing. A few observations from 19th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New case count increased by 6150 on 19th May 2020 with increased 7 days and 14 days averages of 4593 and 4077 new case counts. New cases count for the first time crossed the mark of 6,000. Daily counts as well as averages of new cases are increasing everyday at an increasing rate.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates increased to 5.1% and 3.6% respectively on 19th May 2020 than the previous period and this upward trend in these rates are not a good sign as the base is getting bigger.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 19.5 days on 19th May 2020 with a growth rate of 3.6%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases has increased to 13.1 days with a growth rate of 5.5% on 19th May 2020. It seems that there may be reversal in trend as doubling is decreasing.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. Confirmed as well as active cases per test has again started posting upward movement for the last two days indicating trend reversal.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 40%.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 19th May 2020.

9. Death to total confirmed cases have started falling in the last few days as a result of increased recovery rate.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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