India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 23rd May 2020 Data

From the National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic, it is clear now that the upward trend is getting stronger with every passing day. Growth rate is increasing even after the increase in base. This is not good at all and will make this fight against COVID-19 a long drawn battle. However, mortality rate is falling and recovery rate is improving which is natural. A few observations from 23rd May 2020 National Data:-
1. New case count increased by 6663 on 23rd May 2020 with increased 7 days and 14 days averages of 5825 and 4897 new case counts. 5 days average is 6220. Daily counts as well as averages of new cases are increasing everyday at an increasing rate. 2 weeks average will soon cross 5000 count every day.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 5.7% and 4.6% respectively on 23rd May 2020. There is an upward trend in 7 days average and is not a good sign as the base is getting bigger.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 15.5 days on 23rd May 2020 with a growth rate of 4.6%. Doubling period for active cases is decreasing and the growth rate is increasing. This indicates an upward trend.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 13.4 days with a growth rate of 5.3% on 23rd May 2020. For the last three days the doubling period as well as growth has been the same.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. Confirmed as well as active cases per test has again started posting upward movement for the last two days indicating trend reversal.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 41.4%.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 23rd May 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has decreased to 2.9% on 23rd May 2020. Final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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