India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 24th May 2020 Data

From the national data on the coronavirus pandemic, it can be said that even after a lockdown of more than 2 months, the upward trend is getting stronger day by day. Daily count as well as growth rates both are increasing even after a bigger base. This situation is not good at all and slowly India is moving in the direction of western countries. Four cities, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Ahmedabad are the biggest hotspots in the country contributing 47% of national covid19 cases. It makes this fight against COVID19 a long drawn battle. However, there is only one good news that the mortality rate is falling with every passing day and is expected to remain below 2%. Because of the possibility of a low mortality rate states like are favouring herd immunity than the continued lockdown. The fall in recovery rate is natural.

A few observations from 24th May 2020 National Data:-

1. New case count increased by 7,113 on 24th May 2020 with increased 7 days and 14 days averages of 6,124 and 5,097 new case counts. Daily counts as well as averages of new cases are increasing everyday at an increasing rate. Daily counts have crossed the mark of 7,000. Soon, it may cross the 10,000 mark. average will soon cross 5,000 count every day.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 5% and 4.7% respectively on 24th May 2020. There is an upward trend in 7 days average and is not a good sign as the base is getting bigger.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 15.2 days on 24th May 2020 with a growth rate of 4.7%. Doubling period for active cases is decreasing and the growth rate is increasing. This indicates an upward trend.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 13.2 days with a growth rate of 5.4% on 24th May 2020. These numbers are increasing.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. Confirmed as well as active cases per test has again started posting upward movement for the last four days indicating trend reversal.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 41.7%. Growth in recovery rate in slowing down but growth continues.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 24th May 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has decreased to 2.9% on 24th May 2020. Final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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