A few observations from 25th May 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-1. New case count increased by 6,414 on 25th May 2020 with increased 7 days and 14 days averages of 6,375 and 5,299 new case counts. Daily counts as well as averages of new cases are increasing everyday at an increasing rate. 14 days average has crossed 5,000 count every day.
2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 4.2% and 4.7% respectively on 25th May 2020. There is an upward trend in 7 days average and is not a good sign as the base is getting bigger.
3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 14.9 days on 25th May 2020 with a growth rate of 4.8%. Doubling period for active cases is decreasing and the growth rate is increasing. This indicates an upward trend.
4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 13.4 days with a growth rate of 5.3% on 25th May 2020.
5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.
6. Confirmed as well as active cases per test has again started posting upward movement for the last four days indicating trend reversal.
7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 41.9%. Growth in recovery rate in slowing down but growth continues.
8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 25th May 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing.
9. Death to total confirmed cases has decreased to 2.8% on 24th May 2020. Final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.
10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.
Rajeev Upadhyay
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