India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 26th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 26th May 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New case count increased by 5,866 on 26th May 2020 with increased 7 days and 14 days averages of 6,334 and 5,463 new case counts. Daily counts have been falling since the last two days but it would be earlier to call it a trend reversal. The daily counts have been changing at different rates since beginning. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. Once 7 days and 14 days averages start falling, a trend reversal can be confirmed.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 2.7% and 4.4% respectively on 26th May 2020. Since the last two days, 7 days as well as daily growth rate is falling. It must continue to change the upward trend.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 16.3 days on 26th May 2020 with a growth rate of 4.3%. This increase in the doubling period of active cases is a good sign.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 13.5 days with a growth rate of 5.2% on 26th May 2020. The doubling period has increased slightly. But on the basis of this slight change in doubling period, it would be too early to call it trend change.

5. Even after a significant increase in the numbers of tests per million in India, the gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate. This is good as the recovery rate is getting stronger.

6. The confirmed as well as the active cases per test is increasing for more than ten days. This is not good at all. Unless, there is a reversal in trend, the corona curve would not flatten.

7. The ratio of recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. The ratio of recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) increased to 42.6% on 26th May 2020. This is a good sign. Also, corona patients are recovering in an average of 14-17 days. This is the most satisfactory factor and gives hope that even if the economy is opened, it would not be a difficult situation for the country.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 26th May 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has decreased to 2.88% on 26th May 2020. Final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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