India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 27th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 27th May 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by a record 7,270 on 27th May 2020. This is the highest daily increase. As a result, 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 6,556 and 5,717 new case counts. After a continuous fall for two days, daily counts again increased following the same old trend. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. Daily case count is moving in the direction of 10,000 daily cases and is expected to hit within 10 days considering the increasing number of districts infected by the coronavirus.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were equal at 4.4% on 27th May 2020. After a fall in daily growth and 7 days growth rate, these numbers have again started increasing.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 16 days on 27th May 2020 with a growth rate of 4.4%. On 26th May, doubling increased to again decrease on 27th May 2020.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 13.7 days with a growth rate of 5.1% on 27th May 2020. There are incremental increases in the doubling period for the last three days. These increases are very small but are good if this trend continues for long. However, it would be too early to call it trend change.

5. Even after a five times increase in the numbers of tests per million in India in the last one month, the gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate and has almost doubled. This is good as the recovery rate is getting stronger and the proportion of active cases is decreasing. This is good for a nation like India with very limited healthcare services.

6. The confirmed as well as the active cases per test is increasing for more than 2 weeks. This is not good at all. Unless, there is a reversal in the upward trend, the corona curve would not flatten.

7. The ratio of recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to rise. The ratio of recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) increased to 42.9% on 27th May 2020. This is a good sign. Also, corona patients are recovering in an average of 14-17 days. This is the most satisfactory factor and gives hope that even if the economy is opened, it would not be a difficult situation for the country.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 27th May 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has decreased to 2.86% on 27th May 2020. Final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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