Rajeev Upadhyay: India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 8th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 8th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. Total confirmed cases grew at 6.63% with a doubling period of 10.79 days on 8th May that is slightly higher than that of the previous day numbers. Any sign of growth rate in confirmed cases slowing down looks a distant feasibility. If the lockdown was lifted after 14 days on 8th April, the number of total confirmed cases would have been increased to 1,50157 if the doubling period was 7 days.

2. Active cases grew at a higher rate of 5.6% with a doubling period of 12.6 days on 8th May which is higher than the previous day numbers. There is an increase of 0.3% in the active cases growth rate that has eventually decreased the doubling period to 12.6 days from 13.3 days.

3. Confirmed and active cases as well as tests per million are growing but the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening. The wider the gap, better it is for India.

4. Confirmed cases per test grew at a higher rate than the active cases per test on 8th May. This gap is widening over time and is favorable. This gap should keep widening.

5. Recovery to total cases and recovery to active cases increased on 8th May but unfortunately the new recovery to new cases fell down to 33.22% on 8th May from 44.11% on 7th May 2020. This trend in new recovery to new confirmed cases can reverse all the gains if not contained in time.

6. Death per million is as usual increasing but death to total cases have almost flattened for the last three days in a row. This is a good sign and perhaps giving the wild dreams of opting to herd immunity in India.