India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 6th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 6th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
1. COVID19 new case count increased by 10,521 on 6th June 2020. For the first time the daily new cases crossed 10,000 mark in India. The 3-days average has increased to 9,916. With every passing week, numbers of daily cases are increasing. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 9,252 and 8,229 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India seems to be an unfortunate reality today, however is limited to specific areas. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates are increasing and were 6.65% and 4.73% respectively on 6th June 2020. This trend must reverse else India will witness a Tsunami of COVID patients.

3. The doubling period of active cases has decreased to 15 days on 6th June 2020 with an increased daily growth rate to 4.7%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 15.2 days with a growth rate of 4.59% on 6th June 2020. The incremental decline in the growth rate continues increasing in the doubling period. However, the daily growth count was the highest.

5. Even after a manifold increase in the numbers of tests, the gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate and has doubled. This is a relief as the stronger recovery rate would ease the increasing pressure on the very limited healthcare infrastructure and services. In the last five weeks, daily testing capacity has increased from 5,000 to more than 1,40,000 tests.

6. The confirmed as well as active cases per test is increasing for a long period. This indicates that the fear of community transmission is becoming a reality. To flatten the corona curve, India needs to reverse this upward trend.

7. All the indicators of recovery are moving downward. Recovery rate has fallen to 46.9% on 6th June 2020 from 48.4% on 2nd June. However, corona patients are still recovering in an average of 14-17 days and this fall in recovery rate is due to increased daily case count for many days and would start increasing after a week. Considering the increasing number of patients and a possible community transmission, resuming economic activities to pre-COVID period would be a long drawn battle now and will take months.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 6th June 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has increased to 2.82% on 6th June 2020. However, the final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. There has been a sharp increase in daily death numbers which is far above the 7-days average. This is the real cause of concern because the loss of human life is increasing at an increasing rate.

11. However the numbers of patients in India are increasing but India is still doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million with an average of 5.15 against the world average of 52.97. It should also be noted that corona infection started accelerating very late in comparison to the rest of the world and that is the reason why India is still in a growth phase while most countries in the world are in a decline phase.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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