India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 7th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 7th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 10,884 on 7th June 2020. This is the highest daily count. The 3-days average has increased to 10,255. With every passing week, numbers of daily cases are increasing. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 9,548 and 8,497 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India seems to be an unfortunate reality today, however is limited to specific areas. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Also it is quite possible that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will reach and from there a downward trend is expected.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates decreased to 1.96% and 4.42% respectively on 7th June 2020. This trend must continue to flatten the swelling corona curve.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 16 days on 6th June 2020 with a daily growth rate to 4.4%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 15.7 days with a growth rate of 4.5% on 7th June 2020. The incremental decline in the growth rate continues increasing in the doubling period for long but this decline in growth rate should fall sharply for trend reversal.

5. The gap between the confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate and has doubled. This is a relief as the stronger recovery rate would ease the increasing pressure on the very limited healthcare infrastructure and services. In the last five weeks, daily testing capacity has increased from an average of 5,000 to an average of more than 1,40,000 tests.

6. The confirmed as well as active cases per test is increasing for a long period. This increase in these two key indicators indicates that the fear of community transmission is becoming a reality now. To flatten the corona curve, India needs to reverse this upward trend and only testing would not suffice. India needs to strictly follow the social distancing norms. When the economy is being unlocked from the 4 episodes of nationwide lockdown, social distancing is the only way to stop transmission of coronavirus.

7. Recovery rate increased to 48.1% on 7th June 2020 after a sharp fall. This is good. Corona patients are recovering in an average of 14-17 days. Considering the increasing number of patients and a possible community transmission, resuming economic activities to pre-COVID period would be a long drawn battle now and will take months.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 7th June 2020. With everyday passing, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling.

9. Death to total confirmed cases has increased to 2.8% on 7th June 2020. However, the final fatality rate from COVID19 is expected to remain far below the mark of 3%.

10. The daily death count on 7th June 2020 fell to 7-days average from many episodes of very high numbers. 7-days average should start falling and it is possible only when there is proper medication. But at present resorts are floating that patients are being treated. This will increase mortality rate. We all are paying economic costs but human lives must be saved.

11. However the numbers of patients in India are increasing but India is still doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million with an average of 5.34 against the world average of 53.49. It should also be noted that corona infection started accelerating very late in comparison to the rest of the world and that is the reason why India is still in a growth phase while most countries in the world are in a decline phase.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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