India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 13th July 2020 Data

A few observations from 13th July 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count decreased by 3.2% to 28,178 on 13th July with 7-days and 14-days averages of 26,757 and 24,266 respectively. A conclusive trend reversal is still elusive. States are failing to control the outbreak.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases decreased to 3.3% with a 7 days growth rate to 2.63% on 13th July. The daily and 7-days growth must fall to flatten the swelling corona curve.

3. The doubling period of active cases decreased to 26.7 days on 13th July with 7-days growth rate of 2.63%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 21 days with a growth rate of 3.3% on 13th July. The incremental decline in the growth rate continues increasing the doubling period but it is due to increasing base than any other factor.

5. The daily testing increased to 2,86,247 with a 7-days average of 2,68,773 on 13th July. Considering the significant numbers of asymptotic patients, testing capacity must increase manifolds to stop the spread.

6. The overall positivity rate increased to 7.51% with a daily positivity at 9.84% on 13th July. Testing and tracing would have to be coupled with strict social distancing practices.

7. The overall recovery rate was 63.03% on 13th July with an decreased daily recovery rate. To improve the daily recovery rates, the recovery period must fall. It is feasible only with a coronavirus specific medicine or vaccine for the treatment of the patients.

8. The overall case fatality rate has slightly decreased by 3 basis points to 2.61% on 13th July. Case fatality rate is expected to remain below the 3% mark.

9. The daily death count was above the 7-days average. In absence of proper treatment the case fatality rate will increase. India must save human lives.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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