India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 3rd July 2020 Data

A few observations from 3rd July 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 3.5% to hit the highest ever daily count of 22,721 on 3rd July with 7-days and 14-days averages of 20,063 and 18,147 respectively. A conclusive trend reversal is still elusive. Proactive measures by states can only help to control the spread.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases decreased to 3.43% with a 7 days growth rate to 2.61% on 3rd July. The daily and 7-days growth must fall to flatten the swelling corona curve.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 29.9 days on 3rd July with 7-days growth rate of 2.6%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 19.9 days with a growth rate of 3.5% on 3rd July. The incremental decline in the growth rate continues increasing the doubling period for long but this decline is due to increasing base than any other factor.

5. The daily testing capacity has increased to 2,42,383 with a 7-days average of 2,20,489 on 3rd July. It must increase manifold.

6. The overall positivity rate increased to 6.81% with a daily positivity at 9.31% on 3rd July. The increasing daily positivity rates require India to increase testing capacity manifolds. Testing and tracing would have to be coupled with strict social distancing practices.

7. The overall recovery rate was 60.67% on 3rd July with a decreased daily recovery rate. The increase in recovery rate is universal and natural. Daily recovery rate must improve to effectively bring down the recovery period. Until and unless there is a coronavirus specific medicine or vaccine for the treatment of the patients, daily recovery rates cannot be brought down.

8. The overall case fatality rate has slightly decreased by 3 basis points to 2.87% on 3rd July. Case fatality rate will remain far below the 3% mark.

9. The daily death count was above the 7-days average. In absence of proper treatment the case fatality rate will increase. India must save human lives.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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