India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 30th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 30th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count decreased by 4.5% to 17,876 on 30th June with 7-days and 14-days averages of 18,525 and 16,585 respectively. A conclusive change in the reversal of the trend before the 3rd week of July 2020 looks distant. States can control the spread with strict lockdown in the containment zones. The very high increases in the daily counts in the last few days are temporary and will settle soon.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases decreased to 2.2% with a 7 days growth rate to 2.7% on 30th June. 7-days growth must keep on falling to flatten the swelling corona curve to enable the healthcare system to respond better to the pandemic.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 26 days on 30th June with 7-days growth rate of 2.7%. However the increasing daily positivity rate is eroding all the gains.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases was 19.5 days with a growth rate of 3.6% on 30th June. The incremental decline in the growth rate continues increasing the doubling period for long. A sharp decline in the growth rate will help flattening the corona curve.

5. The confirmed cases per million are increasing everyday in India. However the daily testing capacity has decreased to a 7-days average of 2,10,525 tests instead of increasing.

6. The overall positivity rate increased to 6.64% with a daily positivity at 8.2% on 30th June. India needs to increase testing capacity in urban centres to undo the community transmission. Testing and tracing alone wouldn't be enough but the strict social distancing practices.

7. The overall recovery rate was 59.38% on 30th June with a decreased daily recovery rate. This incremental increase in the overall recovery rate should continue. Corona patients are recovering in an average period of 14-17 days. It will take months before this outbreak comes to a conclusive end. Resuming economic activities to pre-COVID period would be a long drawn battle.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 30th June. With every passing day, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing and the proportion of death and active cases are falling. However, the corona curve is not flattening yet.

9. The overall case fatality rate has slightly decreased by 4 basis points to 2.97% on 29th June. Case fatality rate will remain below the 3% mark.

10. The daily death count was above the 7-days average. In absence of proper treatment the case fatality rate will increase. India must save human lives to compensate for the economic cost.

11. The numbers of patients in India are increasing but India is still doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million with an average of 12.9 against the world average of 67.67.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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