A few observations from 28th August 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-1. COVID19 new case count increased by 76,656 to the total of 34,61,321 on 28th August 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.19% and a doubling period of 31.94 days. Growth rates are continuously falling but the moving averages indicate an upward trend in the daily count. From the data, it seems that India is yet to hit the coronavirus peak.
2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.08% with a doubling period of 64.6 days with the active case count of 7,50,979 on 28th August 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing and the growth rate of active cases has almost doubled. This is due to lower numbers of recoveries in comparison to daily case count. After two weeks, growth rate in the active cases would start falling with improving daily recovery rate.
3. The overall positivity rate was 8.57% against the daily positivity rate of 8.25% on 28th August 2020. Daily positivity rate hovers around 8%. This needs to fall for a trend reversal. Total tests done were 9,28,761 with a cumulative total of 4,04,06,609.
4. The overall recovery rate increased by two basis points to 76.49% against the world average of 69.44% on 28th August 2020. The daily recovery rate was 84.11%. The daily recovery rate again was higher than the overall recovery rate and it will keep on increasing.
5. Case fatality rate has fallen to 1.81% as on 28th August 2020 against the world’s average of 3.38%. It has been consistently falling early April in India.
Rajeev Upadhyay
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