COVID19 India: Observation from 29th August 2020 Data

A few observations from 29th August 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 78,481 to the total of 35,39,712 on 29th August 2020 with 7-days growth rate of 2.18% and a doubling period of 32.12 days. Growth rates are continuously falling but due to increasing base. So this decrease in growth rate indicates nothing. The moving averages indicate an upward trend in the daily count. From the data, it seems that India is yet to hit the coronavirus peak.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases was 1.11% with a doubling period of 62.7 days with the active case count of 7,63,535 on 29th August 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing and the growth rate of active cases has almost doubled resulting in bringing down the doubling period. This is due to lower numbers of recoveries in comparison to daily case count. After two weeks, growth rate in the active cases would start falling with improving daily recovery rate.

3. The overall positivity rate was 8.54% against the daily positivity rate of 7.44% on 29th August 2020. Daily positivity rate hovers around 8%. This needs to fall for a trend reversal. Total tests done were 10,55,027 with a cumulative total of 4,14,61,636.

4. The overall recovery rate increased by two basis points to 76.63% against the world average of 69.56% on 29th August 2020. The daily recovery rate was 82.80%. The daily recovery rate again was higher than the overall recovery rate and it will keep on increasing.

5. Case fatality rate has fallen to 1.80% as on 29th August 2020 against the world’s average of 3.36%. It has been consistently falling early April in India.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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