COVID19 India: Observation from 30th August 2020 Data

A few observations from 30th August 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 79,457 to the total of 36,19,169 on 30th August 2020 with 7-days growth rate increasing to 2.21% and the doubling period falling to 31.68 days. Growth has increased for the first time after 40 days. The increase in daily count is unable to offset base effect. This is not a good sign at all. The moving averages indicate a clear upward trend in the daily count. From the data, it seems that India is yet to hit the coronavirus peak and 80,000 daily count may soon become a new normal to hit 85,000 daily in one or two weeks.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases increased to 1.37% with a decreased doubling period of 51 days with the active case count of 7,78,624 on 30th August 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing and more than one lac new active cases have increased in just eleven days. The growth rate of active cases has almost two and half times resulting in bringing down the doubling period. This is due to lower numbers of recoveries in comparison to daily case count. After two weeks, growth rate in the active cases would start falling with improving daily recovery rate.

3. The overall positivity rate was 8.55% against the daily positivity rate of 9.39% on 30th August 2020. Daily positivity rate hovers around 8%. This needs to fall for a trend reversal. Total tests done were 8,46.278 with a cumulative total of 4,23,07,914.

4. The overall recovery rate increased by two basis points to 76.62% against the world average of 69.75% on 30th August 2020. The daily recovery rate was 76.62%. The daily recovery rate again fell and was lower than the overall recovery rate. The overall recovery rate fell for the second time in a week.

5. Case fatality rate has fallen to 1.79% as on 30th August 2020 against the world’s average of 3.35%. It has been consistently falling early April in India.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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