COVID19 India: Observation from 31st August 2020 Data

A few observations from 31st August 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 68,766 to the total of 36,87,939 on 31st August 2020 with 7-days growth rate increasing to 2.21% and the doubling period falling to 31.7 days. The moving averages indicate a clear upward trend in the daily count. From the data, it seems that India is yet to hit the coronavirus peak. In the last one month in August, around 20 lakhs new cases have been added to total.

2. The 7-days growth rate of the active cases increased to 1.6% with a decreased doubling period of 51 days with the active case count of 7,85,128 on 31st August 2020. Active cases are continuously increasing and more than one lac new active cases have increased in just eleven days. The growth rate of active cases has increased to almost three times resulting in bringing down the doubling period. This is due to lower numbers of recoveries in comparison to daily case count. After two weeks, growth rate in the active cases would start falling with improving daily recovery rate.

3. The overall positivity rate was 8.51% against the daily positivity rate of 6.76% on 31st August 2020. Daily positivity rate hovers around 8%. This needs to fall for a trend reversal. Total tests done were 10,16,920 with a cumulative total of 4,33,24,834.

4. The overall recovery rate increased to 76.94% against the world average of 69.97% on 31st August 2020. The daily recovery rate was 93.72%. The daily recovery rate is almost remaining higher than the overall recovery rate.

5. Case fatality rate has fallen to 1.77% as on 31st August 2020 against the world’s average of 3.33%. It has been consistently falling early April in India.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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