Amidst the chaos of the Iran-Israel conflict and disruptions to supply chains due to Hormuz blockade, every nation is working around the clock to safeguard its interests and mitigate potential losses. Almost every country in the world is bound to bear the brunt of this war, whether in terms of diplomatic relations, economic relations, or both.
At present, the conflict appears one-sided, though Iran is giving a tough fight due to its strong foundation in ideology, unlike Venezuela. However, this war is still tilting decisively in favour of the combined forces of Israel and the United States. However, once this war concludes, the world will never be the same again. If the conflict remains conventional—and the US refrains from launching a nuclear strike against Iran—it is expected to be a protracted affair. Should the war drag on, President Trump could find himself politically hamstrung following the US midterm elections. This shift alone would fundamentally alter geopolitical dynamics. Within the realm of US domestic politics, very few are willing to align themselves with Donald Trump’s chauvinistic posturing regarding domestic and foreign policy matters. Consequently, once his political standing weakens or he is ousted from power, events are likely to shift rapidly once more, potentially leading to a global "reset."
However, it is also clear that from this war, none will come as winner; neither the US-Israel joint force nor Iran will come as a winner. In the meantime, the whole Middle East will witness the havoc of the war and debris from Israel to Saudi Arabia to Iran.
In such a volatile environment, every nation is weighing its words and options carefully and playing its cards with extreme caution. India is adopting a similar approach. Rather than engaging in rhetoric, India is quietly working to secure its national interests, eschewing the temptation to get entangled in fleeting geopolitical theatrics. However, many within India are equating this strategic silence with cowardice and weakness. Some critics even claim that India lacks adequate fuel reserves, citing the recent rise in gasoline prices as evidence. While the timing of these fuel price hikes may indeed be inopportune, it does not signify weakness or indicate a shortage in supply. Nor does it imply that India’s foreign policy has faltered. Foreign policy is not a tangible object; rather, it is an invisible edifice built upon several pillars.
Since the outbreak of the conflict between Iran and Israel, energy shortages have intensified across the globe. While emergency reserves may suffice for a time to bridge the supply gaps resulting from these disruptions, if, as appears increasingly likely, this war drags on for an extended period, every nation in the world will begin to face severe difficulties.
In India, ever since the prices of LPG gas cylinders were hiked, the rumour mill has been working overtime. People across the country have begun hoarding gas cylinders, and stories of a "so-called shortage" are circulating everywhere. Both social media and traditional media outlets are further fuelling this climate of rumours through their reporting.
It is possible that at present, India possesses adequate reserves of LPG and other fuels and that there is no need for anyone to be concerned. Nevertheless, the general public remains anxious and distressed regarding LPG cylinders. Their anxiety is, in fact, entirely justified; after all, they must meet all their daily necessities within the confines of their limited incomes.
Reports indicate that people are queuing up outside gas agencies to procure cylinders. While some view this situation critically, many others, speaking in support of the government, argue that long queues were common in the past as well. They ask: "So what if people are queuing up now?" However, even if queuing up for every little thing was the "norm" under previous administrations, the absence of queues for essential utilities has become the "new normal" in India under the current government. Regardless of the arguments put forth, the undeniable truth is that under the Narendra Modi government, one typically does not have to stand in line to access necessities; indeed, this fact stands as one of the government's most significant achievements. Therefore, the sight of people queuing up for gas cylinders today serves as a clear indicator of panic. It needs to be taken seriously. No political manoeuvring can help to escape from reality.
Given the frenzy of rumours surrounding LPG cylinders, it is not only appropriate but also essential for the opposition to question the government on this matter. Consequently, the opposition's inquiries cannot simply be dismissed as mere "political questions." It is incumbent upon the government to address this situation by streamlining administrative processes and providing a measured, comprehensive response. While it is the role of the opposition to engage in politics and hold the government accountable, it is inappropriate to fuel rumours during such circumstances. In any case, the government bears the responsibility for the rampant rumours currently circulating regarding gas cylinders. Had the prices of gas cylinders not been hiked, middlemen would not have been able to exploit the Iran-Israel conflict as an opportunity!
However, the Indian government's push for self-reliance (Atmanirbharta) and the 'Make in India' initiative were being ridiculed because of India importing a major part of its fuel needs! This is something simply not acceptable as it is not consistent with data and facts. India remains dependent on other nations to meet its energy requirements; indeed, as long as the world continues to utilise oil-based energy sources (fossil fuels), India will have to rely on imports to fulfil its energy needs. Far from diminishing, this dependency is actually poised to increase in the future as the economic activities in India increase.
There is another aspect to this situation. Energy consumption in India has multiplied several times over the past two decades. When compared to this surge in consumption, India's domestic oil production amounts to a mere drop in the ocean. Therefore, using the volume of oil imports as a pretext to mock 'Make in India' and the concept of self-reliance is either a display of ignorance (which is unlikely) or simply a calculated attempt to construct a specific narrative.
At present, the conflict appears one-sided, though Iran is giving a tough fight due to its strong foundation in ideology, unlike Venezuela. However, this war is still tilting decisively in favour of the combined forces of Israel and the United States. However, once this war concludes, the world will never be the same again. If the conflict remains conventional—and the US refrains from launching a nuclear strike against Iran—it is expected to be a protracted affair. Should the war drag on, President Trump could find himself politically hamstrung following the US midterm elections. This shift alone would fundamentally alter geopolitical dynamics. Within the realm of US domestic politics, very few are willing to align themselves with Donald Trump’s chauvinistic posturing regarding domestic and foreign policy matters. Consequently, once his political standing weakens or he is ousted from power, events are likely to shift rapidly once more, potentially leading to a global "reset."
However, it is also clear that from this war, none will come as winner; neither the US-Israel joint force nor Iran will come as a winner. In the meantime, the whole Middle East will witness the havoc of the war and debris from Israel to Saudi Arabia to Iran.
In such a volatile environment, every nation is weighing its words and options carefully and playing its cards with extreme caution. India is adopting a similar approach. Rather than engaging in rhetoric, India is quietly working to secure its national interests, eschewing the temptation to get entangled in fleeting geopolitical theatrics. However, many within India are equating this strategic silence with cowardice and weakness. Some critics even claim that India lacks adequate fuel reserves, citing the recent rise in gasoline prices as evidence. While the timing of these fuel price hikes may indeed be inopportune, it does not signify weakness or indicate a shortage in supply. Nor does it imply that India’s foreign policy has faltered. Foreign policy is not a tangible object; rather, it is an invisible edifice built upon several pillars.
Since the outbreak of the conflict between Iran and Israel, energy shortages have intensified across the globe. While emergency reserves may suffice for a time to bridge the supply gaps resulting from these disruptions, if, as appears increasingly likely, this war drags on for an extended period, every nation in the world will begin to face severe difficulties.
In India, ever since the prices of LPG gas cylinders were hiked, the rumour mill has been working overtime. People across the country have begun hoarding gas cylinders, and stories of a "so-called shortage" are circulating everywhere. Both social media and traditional media outlets are further fuelling this climate of rumours through their reporting.
It is possible that at present, India possesses adequate reserves of LPG and other fuels and that there is no need for anyone to be concerned. Nevertheless, the general public remains anxious and distressed regarding LPG cylinders. Their anxiety is, in fact, entirely justified; after all, they must meet all their daily necessities within the confines of their limited incomes.
Reports indicate that people are queuing up outside gas agencies to procure cylinders. While some view this situation critically, many others, speaking in support of the government, argue that long queues were common in the past as well. They ask: "So what if people are queuing up now?" However, even if queuing up for every little thing was the "norm" under previous administrations, the absence of queues for essential utilities has become the "new normal" in India under the current government. Regardless of the arguments put forth, the undeniable truth is that under the Narendra Modi government, one typically does not have to stand in line to access necessities; indeed, this fact stands as one of the government's most significant achievements. Therefore, the sight of people queuing up for gas cylinders today serves as a clear indicator of panic. It needs to be taken seriously. No political manoeuvring can help to escape from reality.
Given the frenzy of rumours surrounding LPG cylinders, it is not only appropriate but also essential for the opposition to question the government on this matter. Consequently, the opposition's inquiries cannot simply be dismissed as mere "political questions." It is incumbent upon the government to address this situation by streamlining administrative processes and providing a measured, comprehensive response. While it is the role of the opposition to engage in politics and hold the government accountable, it is inappropriate to fuel rumours during such circumstances. In any case, the government bears the responsibility for the rampant rumours currently circulating regarding gas cylinders. Had the prices of gas cylinders not been hiked, middlemen would not have been able to exploit the Iran-Israel conflict as an opportunity!
However, the Indian government's push for self-reliance (Atmanirbharta) and the 'Make in India' initiative were being ridiculed because of India importing a major part of its fuel needs! This is something simply not acceptable as it is not consistent with data and facts. India remains dependent on other nations to meet its energy requirements; indeed, as long as the world continues to utilise oil-based energy sources (fossil fuels), India will have to rely on imports to fulfil its energy needs. Far from diminishing, this dependency is actually poised to increase in the future as the economic activities in India increase.
There is another aspect to this situation. Energy consumption in India has multiplied several times over the past two decades. When compared to this surge in consumption, India's domestic oil production amounts to a mere drop in the ocean. Therefore, using the volume of oil imports as a pretext to mock 'Make in India' and the concept of self-reliance is either a display of ignorance (which is unlikely) or simply a calculated attempt to construct a specific narrative.
Rajeev Upadhyay
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