सेना द्वारा कश्मीर बाढ़ में राहत कार्य करना अत्याचार है

बुद्धिजीविता का क्या है? बेचारी वो तो बेवश होती है तर्कों की! तर्क मतलब जिसे बुद्धिजीवी तार्किक माने! आवश्यक नहीं है कि वो बात तथ्यपरक ही हो। बस पसन्द आना चाहिए!

किसे?

अरे! भाई बुद्धिजीवी को। छोड़ो! आपकी समझ नहीं आएगा।

खैर।

मेरे कुछ अति विद्वान एवं बुद्धिजीवी मित्र हैं। वे बेचारे भारतीय सेनाओं (गलती से हिन्दुस्तानी मत पढ़ लेना) के कुकर्मों को याद कर-कर बहुत रोते हैं। बहुत मतलब दिन-रात! इतना अधिक कई बार आँसू रोना छोड़कर सोचना शूरू कर देते हैं कि उन्हें अब रोना चाहिए या नहीं! खैर! लगता है आँसू भी प्रलापी हो गए हैं।

Has India done it Right by not Ratifying WTO’s TFA?

There has been a lot of discussion about the India’s stand regarding the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) for which developed countries have been lobbying since long. India has made it clear that it will not ratify the TFA until and unless there is a concrete proposal to find out a permanent solution to its public food stock-holding issue for food security reason for ensuring access to enough food to her 1.3 billion population. Before opening the discussion we must look at the previous events.

WTO replaced GATT in 1995 resulting from The Uruguay Round with goals of free trade across the world by reducing trade barriers such as tariffs and subsidies mainly in agriculture, manufacturing and services such as banking and insurance, and to establish powerful and effective intellectual property laws. Most of these goals were aimed to benefit developed countries and MNCs at cost of developing countries and the structure of the WTO was tilted in favour of developed countries. It attracted criticism from many groups like Oxfam, Health Gap and Global Trade Watch. So to prove that WTO works towards better world, Doha Round negotiations started to complete the remaining (so called) trade reforms claiming to have an explicit focus on addressing the needs of developing countries. But again in some ways or others, the interests of the developed countries are dominating with Doha Round trying to convince developing countries to lower subsidies to agriculture and other sectors either through persuasion or pressure.

World Bank, economists and developed nations have been criticising India for providing subsidies to agriculture sector but at the same time they don’t say a single world about the huge subsidies provided by developed countries to their domestic agriculture sector.  Via U.S. farm bills, the United States spends around $20 billion every year on its farmers in direct subsidies in form of "farm income stabilisation". Similarly European Union (EU) spends around $56 billion every year on direct subsidies to the agriculture sector that is around 40% of total budget while India spent only $20 billion in 2010 on subsidies to agriculture sector.

If we look at the agriculture sectors in these countries we find that of total population less than 2% in the US, less than 6% in EU and more than 52% in India is directly dependent on agriculture for income (Chart 1). According to World Watch Institute report, the agricultural dependent population in the US and EU has decreased by 37% and 66% respectively during 1981 to 2011 while in case of India it is has increased by 50% during the same period (Chart 2). It has increased for most of developing countries like China, Brazil and Argentina etc. This clearly indicates that agriculture is far more important for developing countries than that of the developed countries and a country like India cannot afford to ignore agriculture sector where around 70% of total population is dependent on agriculture in different ways. And if a country like India is trying to protect the interests of her farmers, basically she is trying to protect the nation. But still these developed countries criticize India and other countries for providing subsidies to highly sensitive agriculture sector although these developed countries spend more money on subsidies per capita than the developing countries. Developed countries often accuse developing nations for distorted global trade and agricultural production but in fact it are that developed countries that have distorted global trade and agricultural production.

Moving to the reasons why India did not ratify the TFA even after agreeing to do so in Bali Ministerial Meet. There are around 1.3 billion people that India has to feed and at present it is the most important task in the hands of the government. So Indian Government should do everything that can help and even if it has to take tough stand at WTO negations, it must take. The proposed TFA is completely against the interests of India. The current norms for calculating subsidies limit subsidies at 10% of total value of food grain production and the base year for minimum support price is 1968-69. And any country breaching the limit of 10% would be penalized with hefty penalties. These stated norms are completely against India’s interests and its demands for amendment in the norms for calculating subsidies and change in base year to a more current base year are just as the economic profile of India has completely changed since 1968-69.

In India, inflation has been relative on higher side in comparison to developed world, the minimum support prices for different agricultural products have been consistently increasing, procurement of food grains has increased significantly because of Right to Food Act and at the same time, Indian Rupee has depreciated at higher rate against the US dollar. These factors and compulsions altogether put India into a very peculiar situation forcing her to take tough stand.

The first priority of any nation is to feed and provide with a dignified life to its citizen. Considering India’s economic profile, it is clear that it is better for India to protect the interests of its farmers and the poor even at the costs of foregoing possible benefits from TFA than creating jobs for other countries. More interestingly, the stand taken by India has been supported by International Fund for Agriculture Development, the UN body for development of agriculture. So India’s decision is not against WTO and international trade but in favour of the poor across the world.

As far as NAMA is concerned, from empirical evidences from many countries and India it is clear that it is going to hurt India’s interest in short to medium term and nothing can be exactly said about the long term. At present bound tariffs for India are on higher side and under the commitment, India has to make steep cuts in its bound tariffs in most of the sectors (mainly textile and clothing) than that of the developed countries.  This will create an imbalance in the outcome of NAMA negotiations which would be a disincentive for the manufacturing sector leading weaker domestic manufacturing sector. Already there has been irreversible damage to the MSMEs in the name of globalisation and free trade agreements. Importantly, it is expected that NAMA would further weaken the MSMEs and informal sectors like fisheries, natural rubber and animal husbandry that are vital for inclusive growth and higher employment opportunities that is important to bring down inequality. India can deal with this issue by creating a safety net for sectors that are expected to be adversely affected by lower tariffs.

For any government or economic policy, it is the interest of people and the nation that is of prime importance than the global trades and treaties. So it is natural that even if India’s stand is a setback to WTO and freer global commerce and liberalisation as well as India’s commitments for liberalisation, India must stand tough with her demands not only for the agriculture sector but also for it vital MSMEs sector. Although it is near impossible to reverse some of the commitments on bound tariffs but it can balance bound tariffs using its services sectors like telecom, IT and business services sectors. Also it is suggested that it should stick to its initial negotiating stand that the developing countries should have the flexibility not to bind certain tariff lines still considered domestically sensitive or strategically important. This would not only will be beneficial for India but also for the other developing and least developed countries and India can gain huge diplomatic gains and inroads in these countries.

मैं ISIS का शुक्रगुजार हूँ

मैं ISIS का शुक्रगुजार हूँ कि उसने मेरे सामान्य ज्ञान को थोड़ा तो बढ़ा दिया नहीं तो यज़ीदी नाम का बहुत पुराना मजहब भी है पता ही नहीं था। इसलिए गुरूदक्षिणा में कुछ और तो नहीं परन्तु धन्यवाद को कह ही सकता हूँ। खून मत माँगना गुरू मेरे शरीर में बहुत खून नहीं है। जीवन भी कितना मनोरंजक और ज्ञानवर्धक है कि हर जगह ज्ञान ही ज्ञान बँट रहा है। वैसे थोड़ा धन्यवाद तो थ्री इडियट्स के आमिर खान को भी जाता है कि उन्होंने ही दुनिया को बताया था कि हर जगह ज्ञान बँट रहा है। इसलिए पक्का वायदा रहा कि आपकी अगली फिल्म देखूँगा! अच्छा मैं शिष्य तो ठीक हूँ ना? वो क्या है ना केजरीवाल जी के आने के बाद सर्टिफिकेशन का महत्त्व बहुत बढ़ गया है। 

यदि मेरा ज्ञानवर्धन हुआ है तो उम्मीद है कि बाकी लोगों का भी ज्ञानवर्धन हुआ ही होगा। यूँ भी ये ज्ञानवर्धन मनोरंजन के साथ है। वैसे भी थोड़ा बहुत मनोरंजन भी आखिर अंग्रेजी फिल्मों में मरते लोगों को देखकर मिल ही जाता है और हिन्दी फिल्मों के नायक को खलनायक को मारते देखकर उत्साहित होने की हमारी आदत तो खैर बहुत पुरातन है। 

भारत एक क्रान्तिकारी देश है

मेरे कई मित्र कहते हैं कि भारत में कोई क्रान्ति नहीं हो सकती और मैं अव्यस्क उनसे अक्सर सहमत ही रहता था। परन्तु आज मेरे चक्षु खुले और मैं उनसे आज असहमत हो ही गया। और ये खुले हुए मेरे ज्ञानचक्षु बड़े क्रान्तिकारी हैं। हुआ यूँ कि सनी लियोनी ने इस देश में इतनी बड़ी क्रान्ति की है कि आमिर खान को भी नंगा होना पड़ रह है और मेरे दोस्त कहते हैं कि यहाँ क्रान्ति हो ही नहीं सकती! अगर यकीन नहीं होता तो पी के फिल्म का पोस्टर देख लें। 

अब तो मेरा मानना है कि इस क्रान्ति का भविष्य बहुत ही उज्जवल है और पुरा यकी है कि ये क्रान्ति भ्रष्टाचार आन्दोलन की तरह असफल नहीं होगी। कारण बड़े स्पष्ट हैं। मुख्यधारा के लोग इसके सिर्फ हिस्सा ही नहीं बन गए हैं बल्कि झन्डा भी बुलंद कर रहे हैं। सही भी तो है जो नंगा है वही आज विजयी है। कम से कम बलात्कार तो रूक ही जाएगा और निर्भया जैसी घटनाएँ तो अब बिल्कुल ही नहीं होगीं!

Budget 2014-2015: Free Trade Agreements

Free Trade Agreements

Government of India has entered into free trade agreements with many countries but most of the FTAs are not in favor country and those needs to be reviewed. From the trend line of the below graph for the period of 2008 to 2013, it is clear that country’s balance of trade situation has worsen in these years. This indicates that we have imported more from the other countries and exported less and this gap is widening although free trade agreements have been entered into with aims of plugging this gap. And this increasing gap is not good for the exchange rate for Indian rupee at all.

There are a number of economists who favor and advocate free trade agreements claiming that it is beneficial for both the economies. With the opening up economy a lot of foreign money comes to economy and this has been the case with India too. And it helps economy to huge extent. But it seems to be not true in case of India.

If we look as longer period from 1991 when liberalization of Indian economy started, it is clear that situation has worsened more during this period. From the below trend line graph, it can be concluded that it has negative impact on net export from India. Till 2003-2004 there was no huge gap in exports and imports but once India followed the path of bilateral economic ties and free trade agreements in 1998 with Sri Lanka, the gap between export and import rose sharply. In most of the trade agreements (bilateral or multilateral) are tilted in favour of the other countries resulting extra burden on Indian rupee. So on the basis of balance of trade one may say that free trade agreements had not been beneficial for Indian economy as a whole.  Although it is not possible to scrap these agreements but time has come when these agreements must be reviewed (mainly FTA with China).

Budget 2014-2015: Infrastructure, Taxes and Subsidies and Social Security Programs

Infrastructure

Government needs to improve the overall infrastructures in the country from roads to training lines to ports. Also there are numerous infrastructure projects from sectors like power generation, roads and industrial zones etc that are pending at different stages because of leniency on the part of government. Also government needs to formulate a better policy that incentivizes timely execution of infrastructure projects. For this there should be efficient land acquisition and rehabilitation policy in place.

Taxes

The government should cut a clear path in the Budget for the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as this is pending for long time and it will help taxation more smooth and justified. So central government must address to issues raised by state governments in this regards. Also as a measure to help the common man, income tax slabs need to be raised.

Subsidies and Social Security Programs

It is important that government must try to bring down the level of subsidies. There are a number of people in the government who opposes and advocates cutting and scrapping any kind of subsidies on the basis of different theories. But such decisions on more dependent on socio-economic profile of the country than any theory. When millions of people are living below poverty line in India, any such demand cannot be good for the country. Instead of cutting subsidies, it should distribute in more efficient ways. Previous government was advocate of direct cash transfer of different social security benefits such as pensions and subsidies under Right to Food Act, LPG subsidies etc so that it can plug the leakage but it has more negative aspects than positive ones. Instead it should make public distribution system more efficient and transparent. Basically government is required to focus of good quality fiscal consolidation that restructures away from wasteful and distorting subsidies.

Budget 2014-2015: Investment, Manufacturing and Agriculture

Investment by Corporate

According to the latest data available, it is clear that the investment by corporate has been falling since long and this needs to be taken care of, as without and very low of investment by corporate, government would not be able to increase growth. So the government must ensure that there are some stimuli for the corporate to encourage them to reinvest their earnings back into the economy.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing sector in India has been lagging for many years and its contribution in total GDP has been falling. From the following graph it is clear that the manufacturing sector has been growing at a rate of around zero per cent for the past two years. The national aspiration is to increase the share of this sector in the GDP from the current 14 per cent to 25 per cent in the next ten years. For this, we need to seriously incentivise the formation of manufacturing enterprises mainly medium small and micro enterprises as these enterprises cannot do their best without government supports. If MSMEs are promoted properly, millions of jobs can be created for youth.

Agriculture

We have been witnessing very high food inflation for many years in economy and this is creating huge ruckus and it does not seem that this is going to over so easily and soon without well thought strategy execution. So for the government it becomes imperative to take right actions some short term and some medium to long term. Short term measures can include MSP restraint, sell-off of excess food stocks, reducing import duties etc. But in the medium to long term strategy, government must focus on increasing farm productivity and changing some of corps patterns in different parts of country. Apart from this government needs to put in place a well thought strategy and plan to boost the agro-processing industries. And this only cannot work for the farmers alone. There is need for a number of agricultural produces companies that promotes and sells farm produces across the country and these needs to promoted and encouraged by the states governments as well as central government. NABARD can be made nodal agency for the same. While establishing such companies government must take care of stiff taxation and lack of policy support. Also there is need to link agriculture research, university and farmers for better results. Water management and harvesting must be encouraged. Crop diversification, and "more crops per drop" should be the mantra.

Budget 2014-2015: Employment and Skill Building

Employment

At present the unemployment situation in the country is alarming, with 4.7 crore youth (between 25 and 34 years of age) unemployed. Further it is notable that there are more than 350 millions of young people who are ready to enter the job market in next few years. If not managed the so called demographic dividend may turn out to be curse for the economy. And there is only way to decrease unemployment rate and increase opportunities for jobs for young people.

Skill Building

India at present can use the opportunity of the large number of Chinese labour force and their rising wages to establish itself as a low cost manufacturing hub for the world. This will help us to increase share of manufacturing sector in GDP and provide more employment opportunities to millions of youth. But for this it is important that government put basic infrastructure and policy in place for training and skill building and if India wants to achieve higher growth rate and gain for demographic profile, it cannot do without proper and efficient skill building strategies. It must be ensured by the government that the training institutes are providing contemporary vocational skills and there is flexibility in curriculum, recruitment of teachers, their salaries and placement of their students so that training institutes can adjust according to needs of the market.

Budget 2014-2015: Growth

Growth

Growth is another aspect of Indian economy that needs to be taken care of by the Indian government. In the last two five year plans, the average GDP growth rate in Indian economy was around 8%; however, the same is revolving around 4.5% now, which is hardly sufficient in view of the challenges faced by Indian economy. We need to accelerate growth back into the bracket of 8-10% to gain from the demographic profile of India. For this it needs to bring a lot of changes in overall economy.

Fiscal Deficit
From the below graph it is clear that there had been very high level of fiscal deficit and this is upsetting picture for a slowing economy. Therefore, the government instead of going for populism must ensure fiscal prudence.

The fiscal deficit must be brought around 4-4.5% or at max 5% (subjected it converts deficit into revenues) for better exchange rate and other economic parameters. From the newspaper reports about the revenues collection, the path the fiscal prudence by the government seemed to be a difficult choice by government seeing the proposed expenditures and promises made by BJP during recently concluded election as at present it does not have too much scope for higher fiscal deficit.

Budget 2014-2015: Inflation

Inflation                                                              

Inflation in Indian economy has been very high for long time and this is challenging for the economy as it is eroding the value of Indian rupee in national as well as international market and making life difficult for wages earners. Also considering the social and political unrest in Iraq and other West Asian nations, the problem of high inflation in Indian economy becomes more acute as oil prices would show upward trend leading to higher food and overall inflation in the economy. Government is required to take fiscal initiatives to contain as only monetary policy cannot help government in this regards. From the above graph it is clear that the average inflation during 2012 – 2014 has been around 10% and this is very high for any economy.

Food Inflation

Food inflation in the economy is on higher side and government needs to take initiatives for agriculture sector for better results in medium to long term as no short term strategy would work for because there has huge difference in Indian society of early 2000s and today’s India. India is witnessing tectonic shift in its eating habits across the country either its metro cities or rural areas. This has resulted in changes in demand for agricultural foods but most of farmers are following and cultivating old ways and corps. Government needs to bring the required change in the overall farming sector by promoting some important and vital corps so that it does not have to depend on imports.