Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 4th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 4th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. Confirmed cases have started increasing at an increasing rate. On 4th May, 5 days growth rate of confirmed cases increased to 7% from 5.8% four days earlier decreasing the doubling period to 10.2 days from 12.3 days 4 days earlier.

2. Doubling period of active cases fell to 11.3 days on 4th May from 12.9 days a day before. The 5 days growth rate increased to 6.3% from 5.4%. Also five days earlier, the doubling period was 14.9 days.

3. Confirmed cases per test have fallen slightly on 4th May than 3rd May 2020. However, the weekly average is still slightly on the higher side. Previously it was falling continuously.

4. Things on the recovery front have been improving lately but since the last three days, every indicator is deteriorating.

5. India has been able to contain the total deaths per million confirmed cases and is doing better than all the countries with more than 40000 confirmed cases.

6. However, even after a steep increase in confirmed cases, the 7 days average of death per confirmed case is still the same but higher than the previous period.

On the basis of these observations, it becomes important to ask whether the downward trend is reversing for bad?

Rajeev Upadhyay

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