Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 3rd May 2020 Data

A few observations from 3rd May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. Confirmed cases have started increasing at an increasing rate at 6.3% since the last 5 days resulting in a decrease in the doubling period of confirmed cases to 11.36 days from 12.26 days 5 days earlier. 



2. Active cases are increasing at an increasing rate. 5 days growth rate has increased to 5.4% on 3rd May 2020, decreasing the doubling period to 13.2 days from 14.9 days four days earlier.
3. Confirmed cases per test have started increasing at an increasing rate reversing the downward trend. Previously it was falling continuously.
4. Things on the recovery front are improving slowly now. On 3rd May, the number of total recovered cases per case, new recovered cases per new cases as well as recovered cases per active case has been increasing at a higher rate for many days.
5. India has been able to contain the total deaths per million confirmed cases and is doing better than all the countries with more than 40000 confirmed cases as well as lower than that of the world average.
6. Deaths per case have fallen on 3rd May in comparison to 2nd May 2020. But it is increasing one day to decrease on the next day. This makes the situation fragile.

A few observations from 3rd May 2020 State level Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. States like Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Punjab, Bihar, Haryana and Odisha have doubling periods of less than or equal to 11 days which is less than the national average of 11.3 days. The 5 days growth rates of the confirmed cases are more than 6.7% as well as the national average of 6.3%.

2. Situation in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi is critical with high confirmed cases as well daily growth in confirmed cases in the last few days.

3. States like Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha are expected to receive a large number of migrant labourers from cities like Mumbai and Delhi which are hubs of coronavirus infections.

4. In Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Haryana and Odisha, 5 days growth rates in confirmed cases are more than 8%. In Punjab, the doubling period is 2.9 days only and in Delhi in the last two days, more than 21% cases have increased.

5. States like UP, MP, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala and Jharkhand have doubling periods of more than or equal to 13 days. The 5 days growth rates of the confirmed cases are less than 5.5% as well as the national average of 6.3%.
6. States like UP, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan need to be very careful as these states have growth rates less than 5% but even one or two bad days would change the whole dynamics. Mainly UP, MP needs to be more careful as these states are receiving large numbers of migrant workers from metro cities like Mumbai and Delhi which are hubs of coronavirus infection.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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