India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 10th May 2020 Data

A few observations from the week ending on10th May 2020 (National Data) on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. The proportion of active cases has been continuously falling over the weeks from 98% on week ending on 14th March to 65% on 10th May while proportion of recovered cases has been continuously increasing.

2. The doubling period of confirmed cases had been continuously increasing till the week ending on 3rd May to 11.3 days but on 10th May, the doubling period decreased to 10.8 days. There is the same pattern for the active cases too. This is cause of concern as it indicates about trend reversal.

3. Confirmed and active cases as well as tests per million are increasing but the increase in tests per million is steeper than the increase in confirmed and active cases. This clearly indicates that India is still not the phase of community transmission.
4. Till the week ending on 5th April 2020, confirmed and active cases per test had been continuously increasing. But since then, confirmed and active cases per test are continuously falling.
5. Since the week ending on 5th April, increases in new cases per case is continuously falling while the rate of recovery is continuously increasing.
6. New recovered cases to new cases is higher than the overall recovery rate by 7%. This indicates that overall recovery rate is expected to increase at a higher pace.
7. With every passing week, the proportion of recovered cases is increasing.
8. India is doing well in comparison to its counterparts in the world with more than 30000 confirmed cases.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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