India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 11th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 8th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New cases are increasing everyday and the daily growth rate is more than 5% for a long time. It indicates that it will take longer than expected before India is able to contain the spread of coronavirus. Simply it's a long battle altogether and this episode is not going to end so early.
2. 7 days growth rates of confirmed cases are higher than that of the daily growth rates and are still above 5%. Over the time, the base has increased and still the increase in the daily numbers are posting almost the same growth rates.
3. Active cases are increasing at 5.2% with a doubling period of 13.5 days. After 10 days, there is significant improvement on this front. But this is just because of the increased recovery rate.
4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases is 10.7 days with a growth rate of 6.7%. These numbers are in the same range for more than 15 days and there is no significant improvement in the same.
5. There are significant increases in the number of tests per million but the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening. This is a good sign for India and is the result of increased recovery rates.
6. The gap between confirmed and active cases per test is widening. However, for the last three days in row, confirmed and active cases per test are increasing. This is not a good sign.
7. New recoveries to new cases and recovery to active cases are higher than recovery to total cases. This is a good sign.
8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 11 May 2020.
9. Death to total confirmed cases are falling everyday even after increase in daily and total cases for a long time.
10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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