India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 16th May 2020 Data

A few observations from 16th May 2020 National Data on the Coronavirus pandemic:-

1. New cases are increasing everyday. In the last one week numbers of new cases increased by more than 3900 new cases everyday. Even 14 days and 21 days daily average are respectively around 3600 and 3100 new cases everyday. It is quite possible that average daily growth in the confirmed cases would soon increase to more than 4000 new cases. It is quite possible that by the end of month May, daily growth in confirmed cases would increase to 5000 new cases daily.

2. Daily growth rate of the active cases and the 7 days growth rates were 1.3% and 3.7% respectively on 16th May 2020 and decreased but even this rate of growth in daily cases is very high considering the base. It should be below 0.5%, else India would face a very difficult situation.

3. The doubling period of active cases has increased to 19 days on 16th May 2020 with a growth rate of 3.7%.

4. Doubling period of the confirmed cases has increased to 12.6 days with a growth rate of 5.6% on 16th May 2020 against 12.4 days on 15th May. The doubling period is continuously increasing since the last six days.

5. Even after a significant increase in the number of tests per million, the gap between confirmed and active cases per million is widening everyday at an increasing rate.

6. The active cases per test is continuously falling and the confirmed cases per test is hovering around 4% for the last one week.

7. Recovery to active and confirmed cases continue to increase. Recovery to confirm cases (recovery rate) has increased to 37.8%.

8. Active vs recovered vs death as on 16th May 2020.

9. Death to total confirmed cases are now stabilizing at 3.2% rather than falling.

10. India is doing better than most of the countries in the world on account of death per million.

Rajeev Upadhyay

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