A few observations from 15th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
1. COVID19 new case count decreased by more than 10% to 10,014 on 15th June 2020 with 3-days, 7-days and 14-days averages of 11,153, 11,018 and 10,334 respectively. Daily count has fallen two days in a row from the peak of 12,039. These falls must convert into a trend. A conclusive change in the trend before the 3rd week of July 2020 looks distant. The coronavirus has reached the unaffected rural districts but the numbers of positive are active cases in these rural districts are falling sharply. In specific areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, community transmission is an unfortunate reality now. States can control the spread with strict lockdown in the hotspots irrespective of the economic costs to stop the community transmission and break the chain. The daily case counts are expected to hit the peak of 15,000 soon to stagnate for some time and then to fall.
A few observations from 14th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
1. COVID19 new case count increased to 11,373 on 13th June 2020 with 3-days, 7-days and 14-days average increasing to 11,573, 10,789 and 10,168 respectively. These must fall to reverse the trend but is a distant dream till the 3rd week of July 2020. The coronavirus has reached the unaffected rural districts but the numbers of positive are active cases in these rural districts are falling sharply. In specific areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, community transmission is an unfortunate reality now. States can control the spread with strict lockdown in the hotspots irrespective of the economic costs to stop the community transmission and break the chain. The daily case counts are expected to hit the peak of 15,000 soon to stagnate for some time and then to fall.
कोरोना वायरस संक्रमण के मामले में कुछ लोग भारत और न्यूजीलैंड की तुलना कर रहे हैं। जबकि ये तुलना ही बेमानी है। आबादी, जनसंख्या व जनसंख्या घनत्व आदि मानकों पर इन दोनों देशों में कोई तुलना नहीं है। भारत में प्रति हजार व्यक्ति पर 0.7 बेड और 0.85 फिजिसियन हैं। वहीं न्यूजीलैण्ड में प्रति हजार व्यक्ति कुल तकरीबन 3 बेड और 3.6 फिजिसियन हैं। फिर भी उन्हें न्यूजीलैंड की भारत से तुलना करने से पहले भारतीय राज्य हिमाचल प्रदेश और न्यूजीलैंड की तुलना कर लेनी चाहिए।
Situation in Delhi is getting worse with every passing day. The daily positivity rate as on 13th June 2020 has increased to as high as 36.9% in Delhi. The two week average has increased to 26.1%. The overall positivity rate has increased to 13.76% against the national average of 5.7%. Doubling period has fallen to less than 12 days against 17 days of national average. Testing in Delhi is falling. It was testing around 8,000 people every day in the month of May but since 1st June it is testing around 5,000. Even the Dy. CM has accepted that half of the coronavirus patients are undetected because of low tests and lack of proper tracing. That means at present more than of half of the actual numbers of the total cases are either undetected or unreported.
A few observations from 13th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
1. COVID19 new case count increased to the new highest to 12,032 on 13th June 2020. The 3-days average has increased to 11,491. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,718 and 9,983 new case counts respectively. These moving averages must start falling to reverse the trend which looks a distant dream till the third week of July 2020. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected but slowly, numbers of positive as well as active cases in these rural districts are falling sharply. In specific areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, community transmission has become an unfortunate reality. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.
A few observations from 12th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
1. COVID19 new case count increased by 11,314 on 12th June 2020. The 3-days average has increased to 11,201. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,500 and 9,722 new case counts respectively. These moving averages must start falling to reverse the trend which looks a distant dream till the third week of July 2020. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected but slowly, numbers of positive as well as active cases in these rural districts are falling sharply. In specific areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, community transmission has become an unfortunate reality. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.
A few observations from 11th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
1. COVID19 new case count increased by 11,128 on 11th June 2020. The 3-days average has increased to 10,785. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,223 and 9,495 new case counts respectively. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India is now an unfortunate reality, however is limited to some specific areas in urban centres. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.
कोरोना के इस बुरे समय में सबसे अच्छी बात ये है कि हर बीतते दिन के साथ रिकवरी रेट बेहतर होती जा रही है। आज पूरे देश में औसत रिकवरी रेट बढ़कर 49.1 प्रतिशत हो गई है और ठीक हुए मरीजों की संख्या एक्टिव मरीजों की तुलना में अधिक हो गया है। हालाँकि अलग-अलग राज्यों में अलग-अलग रिकवरी रेट है। कुछ राज्यों में रिकवरी रेट 50 प्रतिशत से अधिक है तो कुछ राज्यों में रिकवरी रेट 50% से कम है।
A few observations from 10th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
1. COVID19 new case count increased by 11,156 on 10th June 2020. Daily count has increased by 11% in comparison to the previous period. This high growth is not good at all. The 3-days average has increased to 9,890. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,040 and 9,216 new case counts respectively. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India is now an unfortunate reality, however is limited to some specific areas in urban centres. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.
ये ग्राफ बलिया का करोना कर्व है। बलिया उत्तर प्रदेश का एक ग्रामीण जिला है। बलिया 10 मई तक कोरोना से अप्रभावित ही रहा था परन्तु 11 मई को बलिया में कोरोना संक्रमण का पहला मामला मिला था और ये व्यक्ति रेड जोन से यात्रा कर लौटा था। सूचना है कि इसके यात्रा करने वाले कई अन्य साथियों को भी बाद में कोरोना पॉजिटिव पाया गया था।
9 जून को बलिया में कुल 60 केस थे। कोरोना के पहले मामले के मिलने के 30 दिन बाद बलिया में 9 जून को कुल 37 मरीज ठीक हो चुके थे। बलिया जिले के मामलों में रिकवरी रेट 61.5 प्रतिशत है। सबसे अच्छी बात है कि यह रिकवरी 8-13 दिनों में हो रही है जबकि राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर रिकवरी की अवधि 14-18 दिन है। सूचना है कि कोरोना से संक्रमित अधिकतर मरीज रेड जोन्स के लौटे प्रवासी हैं और बहुत ही कम मरीज ऐसे हैं जिन्होंने बाहरी राज्यों या जिलों की यात्रा नहीं की है। हालाँकि यात्रा विवरण का ये आंकड़ा सरकार द्वार सत्यापित नहीं है।
A few observations from 15th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-
