Possible Fuel Crisis in India

Amidst the chaos of the Iran-Israel conflict and disruptions to supply chains due to Hormuz blockade, every nation is working around the clock to safeguard its interests and mitigate potential losses. Almost every country in the world is bound to bear the brunt of this war, whether in terms of diplomatic relations, economic relations, or both.

At present, the conflict appears one-sided, though Iran is giving a tough fight due to its strong foundation in ideology, unlike Venezuela. However, this war is still tilting decisively in favour of the combined forces of Israel and the United States. However, once this war concludes, the world will never be the same again. If the conflict remains conventional—and the US refrains from launching a nuclear strike against Iran—it is expected to be a protracted affair. Should the war drag on, President Trump could find himself politically hamstrung following the US midterm elections. This shift alone would fundamentally alter geopolitical dynamics. Within the realm of US domestic politics, very few are willing to align themselves with Donald Trump’s chauvinistic posturing regarding domestic and foreign policy matters. Consequently, once his political standing weakens or he is ousted from power, events are likely to shift rapidly once more, potentially leading to a global "reset."

Iran's Hormuz Blockade and Its Impact on Indian Exports

The Strait of Hormuz crisis poses a serious threat to India, given that its exports to the Gulf amount to 57 billion dollars. Oil imports are being disrupted, and shipments to Europe are being further delayed as fuel prices surge. This growing war may soon blow up the grocery bill!

Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The Strait of Hormuz crisis broke out on February 28 when the US and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Operation Epic Fury. Iran responded by launching missiles on US bases, Israeli cities, and Gulf countries such as the UAE and Bahrain, and shutting down the Strait on March 2, stopping maritime traffic. About 2.5 million barrels per day, which is 50% of India’s oil import, passes through the Strait of Hormuz primarily from Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This is driving oil and gas prices up in India.

Impact on Oil and Fuel Prices

India imports about 5 million barrels per day of oil from other countries, of which 2.5 million bpd passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This has made India’s situation vulnerable to continued blockade. The 40 per cent of the east-bound oil flows are blocked, and gasoline and diesel prices have soared 15-20 per cent since early March, driving inflation in transport and food prices.

Impact of Iran-Israel War on Indian Exports to Iran

India’s exports to Iran are now facing serious uncertainty because of the escalating conflict between Iran and the US-Israel Joint Force.

Iran has been an important market for Indian goods. In 2024, India exported products worth about 1.25 billion dollars to Iran. Indian exports include basmati rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery.

But this war has disrupted these trade flows. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Indian basmati rice are currently stuck at ports or in transit, as shipping routes and insurance coverage have been disrupted.

Possibility of De-dollarization and its impact on the World

There has been a lot of hue and cry about De-dollarization post reckless tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration, but de-dollarization is still in the realm of rhetoric, and not in reality. The demand for US bonds is increasing, especially in the wake of the rise in geopolitical tensions and uncertainty.

Dollar's Enduring Dominance

The US dollar is the most dominant reserve currency in the world. It constitutes 58% of the total reserves. Presently, nearly 90% of the total Forex transactions are denominated in the US dollar. This is a position that has remained unchanged since the Bretton Woods agreement. Statistics indicate that the total amount of US bonds held by foreign countries has hit a record high of nearly $9.4 trillion by the end of 2025. Japan remains the largest creditor at $1.2 trillion end-2025, unchanged from 2020 levels, with many countries like the UK have increased their dollar holdings. De-dollarization efforts by the BRICS countries, fuelled by China and buzz-town in India, like the RBI's efforts to link digital currencies seems more like a media creation, and the efforts are yet to come to fruition. However, on the other hand, the policies adopted by President Trump are increasing the chances of diversification, fuelling the speculation about de-dollarization.

Iran is Strategically Less Important than UAE and Suadi Arabia for India

Every country in the world strives to maintain good relations with almost all countries, just as we strive to maintain good relations with our neighbors and relatives. However, when it comes to protecting interests and choosing partners among many, a country strives to maintain good relations with the country with which it has the greatest interest. A country that provides the lowest value is not significant and receives the last preference. India has relations with almost all the Middle East countries based on people migration and mutual trade.

Let's first talk about people. According to the Overseas Indians data of the Ministry of External Affairs of India, a large number of Indian citizens live and work in the Gulf and surrounding countries. This total number reaches around 9 million. Currently, the largest number of Indians are in the United Arab Emirates, with approximately 3,554,274. This is followed by Saudi Arabia, with 2,460,603 Indians. There are 9,93,284 Indians settled in Kuwait, 8,35,175 in Qatar and 3,23,908 in Bahrain. 6,84,771 Indians live in Oman. There are about 20,000 Indians in Israel. 16,897 Indian citizens live in Jordan, 17,100 in Iraq and 10,320 in Iran. Around 3,000 Indian citizens are registered in Lebanon, 3,141 in Egypt, 700 in Yemen, 97 in Syria and 11 in Palestine.

Middle East Crisis: It's Judicious Time than to Respond in Haste

Post the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family in a US-Israeli led joint attack, the second phase of the US-led regime change effort in Iran has moved to the next stage. The first phase was to cause an internal protest against the Khamenei regime that had been gaining momentum in urban and rural Iran for months stirring Irani citizens in and outside Iran. Now, in the third phase, Iran's former dynasty, the Pahlavi dynasty, which still enjoys considerable support in Iran, will likely emerge in a leaderless Iran.

There is a claim that there is a three layered succession plan and Khamenei’s son me take over as final the Supreme Leader of Iran. However, this doesn’t sound fullproof. Ayatollah Khomeini was not father of Ali Khamenei as popularily believed. So even if there is a line of succession, there will be conflicts in absence of strong leadership. This will further worsen Iran's internal situation even, and the IRGC will be unable to control the situation even if it wishes to. It is quite possible that there will be internal conflict in the ranks and files of IRGC and it will possibly lead to collapse and split in the IRGC and a fanfiction being promoted by the US on the line of Taliban. It is quite possible post chaos, there will a factional which will try to capture Tehran the way Taliban did in Afghanistan.

Upset Over Narendra Modi's Israel Visit

India's secular intellectuals and media houses are outraged by the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel. More than the Prime Minister's visit, they are upset by the fact that in his speech, the Prime Minister referred to Hamas as terrorist organization and the October 7th Hamas attack as a terrorist attack. Their displeasure is further compounded by the fact that the Prime Minister has agreed to several cooperation agreements to give a new dimension to India-Israel relations.

Well!

These people argue that India has changed its policy direction on the Palestine issue. India has always supported Palestine on the Palestine issue, but now India has retreated from that policy. These intellectuals continue to call this change in direction wrong.

Well, if this is the argument, then one question must be asked: what has India gained as a result of this one-sided support to Palestine?

Let's assume that Palestine is very poor and facing hardship. It has no technology or any special scientific achievements that could benefit India. No problem. Then, Palestine can at least support India on international forums and refrain from making negative comments on India's internal issues. India can certainly expect this much, and it's justified. But what is the reality?

Budget 2026 Calls for Stability in the Stock Market over Speculation

This is not a budget that aimed to kick-start the markets through speculative trading cycles or provides instant gratification to equity markets. Rather, it is a budget that has its heart set on long-term capital formation, real-sector productivity; focus on key areas of the future economy and a consequent rebalancing of the growth model in India to move away from the dangers of over-financialization.

The government has proposed an increase in the Security Transaction Tax (STT) on futures and options trading in the stock market in the Union Budget 2026. STT on futures has been increased from 0.02 per cent to 0.05 per cent, a 150 per cent increase over the existing rate. Similarly, on option trading, there is an increase from 0.1 per cent to 0.15 per cent on the sale of options (premium) and 0.125 per cent to 0.15 per cent on the sale of options(exercised). This triggered a sudden sell-off on Dalal Street on February 1, 2026, the Budget Day, following an increase in STT. This response by the market, at first, may seem to be counterintuitive but is, in fact, completely expected and in line with the long-term goals of the economy and the self-sufficiency of the stock market.

 
Read more »

Is This the Bottom or Crypto Winter 2.0

Bitcoin is trading around $63,000 for some time in February 2026. This is down more than 50% from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025. Many are asking whether this is a cycle bottom or the start of Crypto Winter 2.0. If one looks at the patterns will notice fundamental changes in the position of Bitcoin in the market. This calls for prudence.

The price of Bitcoin is currently around $63,218, and the total market cap of crypto has fallen below $2.3 trillion. The prices even touch $62,700. Platforms like CryptoQuant indicates that the crypto bearish, with BTC below its one-year moving average. It seems that the prices of Bitcoin may further fall.

Crypto Winter 2.0

The current situation in the crypto market looks like previous winters, which saw 70-85% corrections, low trading volume, and capitulation events, such as those in 2018 or 2022, which lasted for 12 months. Along with the selling pressure, macroeconomic headwinds are also causing problems for the cryptocurrencies. The Fed rate is expected to range 3.5% to 3.75%. It is enough to suppress risk appetite. Apart from this, Trump’s policies are also resulting in regulatory uncertainty despite Trump’s pro-crypto policies. If black swans such as rate hike or global economic crisis or even slowdown hit the economy, Bitcoin will become weaker leading to fall in volume which would freeze the market.

Trump's Tariff, the US Supreme Court and Its Impact on India

The US Supreme Court held that Trump could not impose general tariffs during peacetime under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). IEEPA was the legal basis for the 18% reciprocal tariff on India and tariffs on other countries. This ruling by the US Supreme Court has effectively struck down the legal basis for the higher rate. India was paying only the standard MFN-style tariffs of 3.5% before Trump’s tariffs. This was a setback for President Trump, but the Trump Administration acted quickly to invoke Section 122 of the US trade law. This little-used provision allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days, after which Congress must authorise an extension. Under the new rules, a flat 15% tariff is now applied to imports from all countries, including India, from February 24, 2026.

What has Changed Post the Court’s Ruling

The recent announcement by Donald Trump of a 15% “global” tariff on all countries, which came immediately after the US Supreme Court invalidated his previous tariffs imposed on an emergency basis, has upset the trade math calculations for India. What this means for India is that the earlier agreed-upon 18% reciprocal tariff, which was part of the Trump-Modi trade agreement, is now legally dubious, and in its place, a temporary 15% tariff will be imposed on Indian exports to the United States. The impact of this new development is that India will now be faced with a tariff rate that is lower than the 18% rate that was originally agreed to, but higher than the pre-Trump MFN rate of 3.5%.

India Joins Pax Silica

Until recently, it seemed that India was a thorn in America's eyes! However, today, the same America has made India a part of the US-led "Pax Silica" alliance! It may seem surprising to the average person, but this is how the world of diplomacy works. Every transaction here has a single objective: protecting the country's interests, and there are no friends or enemies.

The Pax Silica Alliance, though still evolving' is a US-led coalition focused on securing the global supply chain for essential minerals, semiconductors, and AI. India's participation in this alliance is important for both India and the US. America possesses AI technology, while India has a huge market for AI. So mutually beneficial for both.

Essentially, Pax Silica aims to create a trusted ecosystem from mining to microchips and from microchips to AI, reducing excessive dependence on a single dominant supplier. It also aims to reshape 21st-century technology-based geopolitics. However, it is implicitly a US effort to counter China's growing dominance in microchips and AI.

Indian IT Stocks have Tough Time Ahead

The stocks of Indian IT companies are bleeding following the launch of Anthropic, a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) model. The prices of stocks of Indian IT companies have fallen by more than 15% in the last one month. This AI model is capable of replacing software coders and programmers. Particularly in the case of the Indian IT sector, Software as a Service (SaaS) is the main business and revenue source. Such AI models are expected to make the Software as a Service (SaaS) business almost dead! For Indian IT companies, this is news which they never imagined but are now facing. This is a kind of Kodak Moment for the Indian IT sector! Nokia also experienced this and could never recover despite its complete dominance!

The said AI model and such other models are expected to completely disrupt and shake the global IT sector, and the ramifications may be even broader than assumed! However, there is also a possibility that the buzz around AI may prove to be hype, like initial opposition to calculators and computers!

As of now, for a person, AI and its impact on businesses and humanity may be a mystery. Numerous questions are floating around with no final answers. However, for the Indian IT sector, the AI models present a deflection point. People across India are wondering to find the answers to these questions: Why are the stocks of Indian IT companies bleeding on the stock exchanges? Is it just because of disruptive innovation? Or something else?

Budget 2025-2026: Modi Government's Big Bet on Youth

India's Union Budget 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, 2026, emphasized "youth-driven growth" to capitalize on the demographic dividend through education, skill development, and digital tools. The government has allocated approximately ₹1.4 lakh crore for the education sector in the 2026-27 budget. Key budget announcements include safe housing for female students, youth skill centers, and AI platforms like BharatVistaar, all aligned with the goals of a developed India.

Demographic Dividend as an Engine

Education, skills, youth, and students are crucial pillars of India's vision of a developed India. Translating our demographic dividend into a high-productivity workforce is not just an option but a necessity for becoming a developed nation by 2047. These not only promote inclusive growth, innovation, and economic resilience, but also align with India's ambitions of achieving a $30 trillion GDP and global leadership in services and manufacturing. The Union Budget 2026-27's education, skills, youth, and student schemes are built on this foundation. 

Read more »

Narendra Modi in the Epstein File: A Pressure Tactics

The US Department of Justice has released a large cache of documents relating to the Epstein Files, and some of those contain the name of Prime Minister Modi. No one knows the facts behind this so-called revelation, but one thing is crystal clear from the timing of this revelation. The trade negotiations between India and the US have been going on for a long and India has been stubborn and rejecting any possible entry of the US in the Indian agriculture and dairy sector, while the US wants India to open these sectors for American imports. The Trump Administration is under huge pressure from the dairy sector, and corn producers lobby after the Chinese strike on American exports of corn to China. The US is desperately searching for new markets for its agricultural products and dairy sector, and India is the largest market for these products.

Harmony not Conflict

Both discrimination and equality are relative terms, defined according to convenience. Coincidentally, both terms are universally integral parts of society and exist in some form or another, and will always continue to exist in some form.

Whether we accept it or not, discrimination exists in society and is manifested at every level in some form. This discrimination is a form of poison that may or may not kill an individual, but it certainly weakens society and the nation. Therefore, a society free from discrimination and based on equality is not just a necessity, but indispensable for a healthy society. However, it is also the responsibility of society to strive for equality by eliminating all forms of discrimination and exploitation; not by empowering one segment of society while disempowering another.

Today, despite having a society, India's society has become very weak, and the tasks that should be the responsibility of society are now being performed by the government. The Indian government enacted a law to stop the dowry system because daughters were being brutally burned alive for dowry. Similarly, a law was made to prevent discrimination against the Dalit community. Prevention is necessary. Therefore, laws were enacted to prohibit dowry and to prevent discrimination against the Dalit community. The laws are functioning as intended, but neither of these laws has been able to bring equality to society nor eliminate discrimination. Instead, they have taken on a different form and have become instruments of discrimination and reverse discrimination.

Trump’s Tariffs, Global Chaos and Opportunities for India

The aggressive tariff policy followed by the US president is shaking up the world economy, old alliances and the old world order. President Trump has not only imposed tariffs on its trading partners but has also blocked the WTO's rules, shattering the institution. He is pushing for the purchase of Greenland while regularly striking India through policy initiatives or statements. ‘America First’ policy and Trump’s MAGA are cracking the global order and alliances. In the case of Europe, the issue of Greenland is becoming a bone of contention among the NATO partners (the US and the European countries). His policy choices are ransacking and negatively affecting the trade, alliances and trust everywhere. This move by Trump would have broader consequences for the world, the US and the US dollar in the coming days.

Tariffs Demolish WTO Rules

The US President Trump's 2025 tariffs are going completely against the WTO rules. The US is ignoring WTO limits as per WTO rules on non-discrimination and fair disputes. The WTO's Appellate Body, the dispute settlement body of the WTO, has been in crisis since 2019. The US has blocked the appointment of new judges, raising the issue of overreach and sovereignty. This has weakened the Appellate body, and as a result,t the unilateral tariffs imposed by the US remain unpunished. China has filed complaints against the US challenging the US tariffs, but nothing happened, and nothing is expected to be enforced because ofthe dominant position of the US in the WTO. It is pushing other countries to opt for solo protectionism and focusing bilateral and regional alliances. This has led to friendshoring. As per the UN forecast, post-Trump’s tariffs, the global growth has dipped to 2.7% in 2026.

A R Rahman: Music Composer Turns Hitman

According to A.R. Rahman, 'Chhava' is a communal film, yet the Hindu-majoritarian filmmakers of this communal film allowed A.R. Rahman to compose the music, and he happily composed the music for Chhava. It seems both the filmmakers and he have very big hearts. The filmmakers gave him work despite him being Muslim, and he contributed his music to the film despite it being communal! Or perhaps he only found out the film was communal after it was made, and the filmmakers only found out he was Muslim after the film was made. Well, it worked out for both of them.

Anyway.

In this same Bollywood, Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, Aamir Khan, and Saif Ali Khan are big stars, but even people like Emraan Hashmi, Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Huma Qureshi, Arshad Warsi, Nushrratt Bharuccha, and Nargis Fakhri are getting work. Aren't they Muslim?

Who is Next? Russia, Chana or India

We all may have an illusion that we, as human beings, have become a civilised race, but the fact is that we still are living in those same barbaric days when muscle power used to decide who would own the land. Even today, if you don't have muscle power, you have no sovereignty and dignity. Anybody can snatch from you, and if you resist those powerful people, they will kill you, declaring you a threat to the human race!

Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and Nicolas Maduro (yet to be killed) were overthrown and killed by the US. Not because they attacked the US, but because they challenged the US hegemony and the Petro-Dollar to survive the US sanctions!

Investment in Indian Companies is an Investment in the Indian Eonomy

Mark Mobious of Mobious Capital thinks that Sensex will soon touch the high of 1,00,000 points. Not only this, but he thinks that investment in Adani or any such companies is an investment in India!

Is it really so and that simple?

Truly speaking, yes. This is 100% correct. These companies are one of the three stakeholders of the Indian economy. Two other stakeholders are consumers/citizens and regulators/ government. It is the regulator's duty and responsibility to ensure that the interests of the two other stakeholders are taken care of while ensuring capacity and capabilities building in the economy. However, whenever there is any effort by the government to provide support to businesses, there are controversies. It's not a trend of the day but a historical fact! There is a political narrative out there that claims that the investment in companies, and particularly Adani, is corruption and perhaps a crime!

SJ-100 MoU to Revolutionise Indian Regional Aviation Sector

India's HAL and Russia's UAC have signed an MoU in Moscow to produce the SJ-100 commuter aircraft in India, under which India will have the rights to manufacture civil commuter aircraft SJ-100 for domestic usage. SJ-100 is a small commuter aircraft.

This will mark the beginning of a new era in India's civil aircraft manufacturing sector. This will lead to the development of indigenous aircraft technology in India in the long term. India has a history of improvising technology in such a way that it becomes cheaper while maintaining the quality. So, one can expect that India will soon produce cheap small aircraft.