Delhi Sitting on Corona Bomb

Situation in Delhi is getting worse with every passing day. The daily positivity rate as on 13th June 2020 has increased to as high as 36.9% in Delhi. The two week average has increased to 26.1%. The overall positivity rate has increased to 13.76% against the national average of 5.7%. Doubling period has fallen to less than 12 days against 17 days of national average. Testing in Delhi is falling. It was testing around 8,000 people every day in the month of May but since 1st June it is testing around 5,000. Even the Dy. CM has accepted that half of the coronavirus patients are undetected because of low tests and lack of proper tracing. That means at present more than of half of the actual numbers of the total cases are either undetected or unreported.

India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 13th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 13th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased to the new highest to 12,032 on 13th June 2020. The 3-days average has increased to 11,491. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,718 and 9,983 new case counts respectively. These moving averages must start falling to reverse the trend which looks a distant dream till the third week of July 2020. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected but slowly, numbers of positive as well as active cases in these rural districts are falling sharply. In specific areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, community transmission has become an unfortunate reality. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.

India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 12th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 12th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 11,314 on 12th June 2020. The 3-days average has increased to 11,201. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,500 and 9,722 new case counts respectively. These moving averages must start falling to reverse the trend which looks a distant dream till the third week of July 2020. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected but slowly, numbers of positive as well as active cases in these rural districts are falling sharply. In specific areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, community transmission has become an unfortunate reality. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.

India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 11th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 11th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 11,128 on 11th June 2020. The 3-days average has increased to 10,785. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,223 and 9,495 new case counts respectively. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India is now an unfortunate reality, however is limited to some specific areas in urban centres. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.

भारत में रिकवरी रेट में सुधार

कोरोना के इस बुरे समय में सबसे अच्छी बात ये है कि हर बीतते दिन के साथ रिकवरी रेट बेहतर होती जा रही है। आज पूरे देश में औसत रिकवरी रेट बढ़कर 49.1 प्रतिशत हो गई है और ठीक हुए मरीजों की संख्या एक्टिव मरीजों की तुलना में अधिक हो गया है। हालाँकि अलग-अलग राज्यों में अलग-अलग रिकवरी रेट है। कुछ राज्यों में रिकवरी रेट 50 प्रतिशत से अधिक है तो कुछ राज्यों में रिकवरी रेट 50% से कम है।

India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 10th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 10th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 11,156 on 10th June 2020. Daily count has increased by 11% in comparison to the previous period. This high growth is not good at all. The 3-days average has increased to 9,890. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 10,040 and 9,216 new case counts respectively. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were almost unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India is now an unfortunate reality, however is limited to some specific areas in urban centres. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona as well as to break the chain. From the data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will be reached and the growth in daily count will stagnate. From there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for many weeks.

बलिया का कोरोना अनुभव

ये ग्राफ बलिया का करोना कर्व है। बलिया उत्तर प्रदेश का एक ग्रामीण जिला है। बलिया 10 मई तक कोरोना से अप्रभावित ही रहा था परन्तु 11 मई को बलिया में कोरोना संक्रमण का पहला मामला मिला था और ये व्यक्ति रेड जोन से यात्रा कर लौटा था। सूचना है कि इसके यात्रा करने वाले कई अन्य साथियों को भी बाद में कोरोना पॉजिटिव पाया गया था।

9 जून को बलिया में कुल 60 केस थे। कोरोना के पहले मामले के मिलने के 30 दिन बाद बलिया में 9 जून को कुल 37 मरीज ठीक हो चुके थे। बलिया जिले के मामलों में रिकवरी रेट 61.5 प्रतिशत है। सबसे अच्छी बात है कि यह रिकवरी 8-13 दिनों में हो रही है जबकि राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर रिकवरी की अवधि 14-18 दिन है। सूचना है कि कोरोना से संक्रमित अधिकतर मरीज रेड जोन्स के लौटे प्रवासी हैं और बहुत ही कम मरीज ऐसे हैं जिन्होंने बाहरी राज्यों या जिलों की यात्रा नहीं की है। हालाँकि यात्रा विवरण का ये आंकड़ा सरकार द्वार सत्यापित नहीं है।

India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 9th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 9th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 10,218 on 9th June 2020. Daily count has increased by 21% in comparison to the previous period. However, the 3-days average has decreased to 9,848. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 9,851 and 8,952 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India is now an unfortunate reality, however is limited to specific areas. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona. From data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will reach and from there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for long.

India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 8th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 8th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 8,444 on 8th June 2020. Daily count has decreased by around 20%. The 3-days average has also decreased to 9,942 from above 10,000 mark. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 9,651 and 8,641 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district level data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India is now an unfortunate reality, however is limited to specific areas. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Whatever economic cost lockdown may have but locking down these hotspots strictly is the only way to stop the community transmission of the corona. From data, it seems that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But at the same time it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will reach and from there a downward trend is expected. But the daily count of 15,000 will sustain for long.

India Fight Against Coronavirus: Observation from 7th June 2020 Data

A few observations from 7th June 2020 (National Data) on coronavirus pandemic:-

1. COVID19 new case count increased by 10,884 on 7th June 2020. This is the highest daily count. The 3-days average has increased to 10,255. With every passing week, numbers of daily cases are increasing. The 7 days and 14 days averages increased to 9,548 and 8,497 new case counts. The 7 days and 14 days averages of new cases are increasing everyday. From the district data, it is evident that coronavirus has reached the rural districts which were unaffected. The risk of community transmission in India seems to be an unfortunate reality today, however is limited to specific areas. States can control the spread with strict policies in these hotspots. Also it is quite possible that the daily case counts would increase to 15,000 in the next two weeks. But it is also expected once daily count increases to 15,000 mark, the peak of the corona curve will reach and from there a downward trend is expected.