India in Modern Warfare with Pakistan

In modern warfare before firing the first bullet you have to win the battle. Bullets are fired to bring the land into your dominion. So in all ways India has to win the economic warfare first then bullets can be fired if necessary. But the problem is that China would not allow Pakistan to fail as failure of Pakistan would be a disaster for Chinese economy (refer to CPEC). So those who think that Atom bomb and Rafael can only do the job they must rethink. 

Since Mr. Modi became Prime Minister, Indian government is focusing on barricading Pakistan at economic level and breaking the string of pearls in Indian Ocean created by China to barricade. Pakistan and China both understand it very well. That is the reason why China will keep on protecting Azhar Masood. If Azhar Masood is declared as an international terrorist, both the countries know that India will move the resolution to declare Pakistan a terrorist state. And if India is successful in doing so, it would a blow for China from which it will take decade to recover and Pakistan may break into many parts which is already on brink.

अब फिर से रोना-धोना होगा

आखिरकार बुद्धिजीवी अब अपने-अपने घरों से बाहर निकलने लगे हैं। सारे के सारे कश्मीर और कश्मीरियों की सुरक्षा को लेकर चिंतित हैं। उन्हें लग रहा है कि इस देश में कश्मीरी सुरक्षित नहीं हैं। कुछ छिटपुट घटनाओं को सार्वभौमिक बताकर पूरे देश को ही कटघरे में खडा किया जा रहा है। कुछ मानवाधिकारों का रोना रो रहे हैं तो कुछ शांति का पाठ पढा रहे हैं। कुछ को इन शहीदों में भी हिंदू-मुस्लिम भी दिखाई देने लगा है। जाति के लिए रोने वाले भी इस दुर्घटना को मनुवादी सिद्ध करने का प्रयास कर रहे हैं। जबकि इनमें से अधिकतर के मुँह से इस त्रासदी और आतंकीवादियों के विरूद्ध एक शब्द भी बाहर नहीं निकला। हाँ इनमे से कुछ ने दो रोटी अधिक जरूर खाई होगी। 

Rising Inequality: A Cause of Concern

The whole world needs to be worried about the wealth concentration in a few hands. Every measure of inequality across the world is indicating towards it and it has turn to be almost universal truth today by every institution Oxfam or others. 

Rising inequality is cause of concern but such concentration and accumulation of wealth in few hands at the end day would undermine the democracy and democracy over time will turn into oligocracy in which only a few will remain important. Rest would not matter. 

ICICI Board Allowed Bank to Fail: ICICI-Videocon Matter

It is matter of grave concern that neither ICICI Board didn't take strong actions against Chanda Kochhar until Srikrishna Panel found her violating lenders code of conduct nor did Reserve Bank take cognizance of the matter. Although from day one there were enough prima-facie evidences suggesting that everything was not as per the norms in ICICI dealings with Videocon. The charges of nepotism, conflict of interest, violation in the lender’s code of conduct and other irregularities were evident and loud from day one. 

Since Chanda Kochhar’s husband was directly involved with the borrowing firm Videocon, anyone can assume that the possibility of some undue favours cannot be written-off. Though for ICICI it was not a cause of concern at all. Rather they gave her clean chit in this matter on first instance. However such a hasty decision by board was not expected but board was busy in the process of damage control to its brand image. While doing so board forgot it was its responsibility to ensure that bank followed all the codes and regulations. From day one it was clear that ICICI had failed on issue of banking governance. Even Reserve Bank did not find this matter that important. And in this way ICICI Board and RBI allowed bank to fail. 

Demonetization, GST and AADHAR

India is undergoing through tough reality checks which could have happened earlier but didn't. You may agree, you may not but the truth is that economy is witnessing structural changes (better tectonic shift) which were due for some time. Those who have issues with GST, demonetization and AADHAR must understand that India has opted for an economic structure in 1992 which requires formalization of economy. 

The informal sector is often very helpful in early stages of economic growth but as the wagon moves forward, formalization becomes the need of hour and demonetization, GST and AADHAR are the moves in that direction. When money pouring in the economic system, regulatory authorities must have enough data to check and balance else you will have other lords controlling whole economy. And the way Indian economy was moving along with unimaginable amount counterfeit currency in the system, was undermining all the efforts put forth by respective governments.

A Letter to Dr Raghuram G Rajan

Respected Dr Rajan Sir

I saw your angst about high level of inflation in the economy in different newspapers. And you was asking questions rather than answering for those same questions! It is simply amusing sir. This makes me ask a few questions.

Sir what you were doing by keeping interest rates so high as a central banker and that too for around long three years? Is it not your failure as a central banker sir? Is the autonomy given to you for being a rebel or catalyst for growth and inclusion? Is it not part of your duty and integrity to cooperate with the FM or convince him so that fiscal and monetary policies remain aligned? Sir what you did for the poor? And what are your achievements besides creating political fissures (for both the governments)?

No doubt you are a very good economist; perhaps a great one and you have proved this to world with studies and writings and don’t need a certificate from novice like me. But sorry sir! I have to say that you are not a good central banker! The autonomy given to you is not for being rebel but to ensure that you are not puppet in the hands of political powers.

Being in limelight is not a bad thing for an economist and central banker but being a Superman of central bankers is not expected from you.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Must be Aligned

Monetary Union EU is moving forward to meet its fate and Britain may perhaps be the first step in its breakdown. The proper analyses of the economic problems that European Union has been facing for long clearly indicate that the problem lies nowhere but in basic concepts behind the foundations of this Union itself. Until and unless the fiscal and monetary policies are aligned, no beneficial result is possible.

Same situations are there in India as well; as the monetary policy (RBI) moves in northward while fiscal policy (governments (UPA and NDA both)) in southward direction. Being prudent is different thing but being obsessive to something is completely a different thing. RBI Governor Dr Raghuram Rajan has been obsessive rather than being prudent (Greenspan Effect). And perhaps earlier government had idea about this that's why he was given three years stint instead of a regular appointment for five years.

Although EU is a great innovative experiment to undermine the role of governments and to push forward the idea of efficient market carried on by capitalism but it was bound to fail as it was an effort to function the body only with mind and without pumping of blood by the heart. Both the mind and heart are important for the body and they must work in tandem so are the fiscal and monetary policies for the economy.

लौटना होगा जड़ों की ओर

नदियाँ, झीलें, तालाब और भूगर्भ का जल हर बीतते दिन के साथ सूखता जा रहा परन्तु इस धरती को जल की आवश्यकता बढती ही जा रही। दिल्ली में यमुना नाला बन चुकी है तो कानपुर में गंगा। कावेरी भी रो रही है और नर्मदा का हाल भी कुछ बहुत अच्छा नहीं है। झीलें हम इन्सानों की जमीन हवस पूरा करने में छोटी होती जा रही हैं तो गाँवों एवं शहरों के तालाब और कुँओं को पाटकर नलकूप लगा दिए गए हैं ताकि सहूलियत हो सके। पेड़ों को काटकर घरों को काँच का बना लिया ताकि इन घरों की चमक दूर तक पहुंचे कि देखने वालों की आँखें चौधिया जाएं। इस सहूलियत की लालसा, और अधिक पाने की हवस और प्रगतिशील बनने एवं दिखाने के नाटक में हमने हर उस चीज को ध्वस्त कर दिया है जो हमारे अस्तित्व के लिए जरूरी है और हमने हर उस गैर जरूरी चीजों को अपने जीवन का अपरिहार्य हिस्सा बना लिया है जिसके होने ना होने से हमारे जीवन कोई नकारात्मक असर नहीं पड़ने वाला है और हमें लगता है कि हमने विकास किया है। पता नहीं ये कैसा झूठ है या फिर साजिश कि हम आँख खोलकर देखना ही नहीं चाहते।

सुकून अपना ढ़ूँढ़ता हूँ मैं

जिन अंधेरों से बचकर भागता हूँ

हमदम हैं वो मेरे।

जिनके साथ हर पल मैं जीता हूँ

और मरता भी हूँ हर पल

कि आखिरी तमन्ना हो जाए पूरी।

मगर वो तमन्ना 

आज तक ना पाया हूँ 

कि बेवश फिरता रहता हूँ 

पूछता रहता हूँ 

मैं मेरे अंधेरों से 

"कि कुछ तो होगी 

तुम्हारे होने की वजह?" 

अक्सर वो चुप ही रहते हैं 

जब जी मुहाल कर देता हूँ उनका मैं 

तो हँस कर कहते हैं 

"और वजह क्या हो सकती है तुम्हारे सिवाय? 

मैं तुम ही हूँ 

अलग कहाँ हूँ मैं तुमसे? 

बस तुम अलहदा हो सोचते हैं 

मैं तुझमें जीता हूँ।" 

हर बार जबाव यही होता है 

और डरता हूँ मैं 

मगर जानता ये भी हूँ मैं 

कि इन सवालों में ही 

सुकून अपना ढ़ूँढ़ता हूँ मैं। 

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राजीव उपाध्याय

जरूरी नहीं

हर तस्वीर साफ ही हो ये जरूरी नहीं

जमी मिट्टी भी मोहब्बत की गवाही देती है।

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मैं भी कभी हो बेसुध, नीड़ में तेरी सोता था

बात मगर तब की है, जब माँ तुझे मैं कहता था।

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मोहब्बत में फकीरी है बड़े काम की

दिल को दिल समझ जाए तय मुकाम की॥

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क़त्ल-ओ-गारद का सामान हर हम लाए हैं

तू चाहे खुदा बन या मौत ही दे दे मुझे।

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हर आदमी यहाँ खुदा हो जाना चाहता है

कि कोई सवाल ना करे सवाल उछालना जानता है।

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राजीव उपाध्याय